Tempest Therapeutics Inc Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryBiotechnology Beta (adjusted)-0.77 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $0.83Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $14.1M Enterprise Value $13.3M Shares Outstanding 16.5M diluted Next Earnings Date12 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Tempest Therapeutics is undergoing a major strategic pivot, shifting its primary focus toward next-generation dual-targeting CAR-T therapies (led by TPST-2003) acquired from Factor Bioscience in early 2026. While clinical data for both TPST-2003 (100% CR rate in early trials) and its Phase 3-ready HCC candidate amezalpat (TPST-1120) are highly promising, the company faces severe near-term financial and regulatory hurdles. With cash reserves down to $1.8 million as of March 31, 2026, an accumulated deficit of $270.1 million, and a Nasdaq deficiency notice regarding minimum stockholders' equity, Tempest is highly dependent on external funding commitments, warrant exercises, and securing strategic partnerships. A 'Hold' recommendation reflects the high-risk, high-reward nature of its clinical assets balanced against acute liquidity and delisting risks. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$11.00 Mean target$11.00 High · most bullish analyst$11.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The company fails to regain compliance with Nasdaq's stockholders' equity or board independence requirements, leading to delisting to over-the-counter markets. Additionally, tight liquidity prevents the timely initiation of the TPST-2003 registrational trial, and the company is unable to secure a partner for amezalpat, forcing severe clinical delays or highly dilutive emergency equity financing. Base CaseCentral scenario The company successfully submits its Nasdaq compliance plan, utilizing recent warrant exercises (such as the $2 million gross proceeds in late May 2026) and the Factor Bioscience funding commitment to restore stockholders' equity above $2.5 million. TPST-2003 advances into a U.S. registrational Phase 2b study in late 2026, and the company secures a regional or global partner to fund the Phase 3 trial of amezalpat in HCC, alleviating direct cash burn. Bull CaseUpside scenario The strategic pivot into CAR-T therapy via the acquisition of TPST-2003 provides a validated clinical-stage asset with strong early efficacy (100% complete response rate in early trials) and extends the cash runway to mid-2027, while legacy assets like amezalpat remain Phase 3-ready pending strategic partnerships. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |