Telos Corp Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustrySystems Software Beta (adjusted)0.99 Intrinsic Value $5.15median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $4.07Price as of 30 Sep 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 26% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $304.2M Enterprise Value $261.1M Shares Outstanding 77.5M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date9 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Telos Corporation is undergoing a highly profitable mix shift, transitioning away from its legacy, lower-margin Secure Networks business toward its high-margin Security Solutions segment. This transition is highlighted by explosive growth in TSA PreCheck enrollments via Telos ID and robust execution of core federal programs. Despite a temporary leadership transition with CEO John Wood on medical leave, the company's Q1 2026 results demonstrated exceptional operational efficiency, with revenue surging 56% year-over-year and Adjusted EBITDA margins expanding dramatically to 16.5%. Backed by a strong net cash position and an active share buyback program, Telos represents a compelling turnaround story in the cybersecurity and identity space. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$4.00 Mean target$6.83 High · most bullish analyst$9.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $4.00 Extended federal procurement delays or budget constraints stall new contract awards, while the legacy Secure Networks segment declines faster than anticipated, compressing overall gross margins and delaying the path to GAAP profitability. Base CaseCentral scenario $6.83 Matches the consensus meanTelos successfully executes on its $4 billion pipeline of award decisions, maintaining stable federal contract renewals. Security Solutions continues to grow at a double-digit rate, offsetting legacy network declines, and the company achieves full-year profitability with consensus EPS of $0.13. Bull CaseUpside scenario $9.00 Accelerated expansion of TSA PreCheck enrollment sites and rapid commercial adoption of the Xacta cyber risk management platform drive full-year revenues to the high end of guidance ($200 million) with Adjusted EBITDA margins consistently exceeding 18%. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |