Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT ADR Dossier - Source-backed chat

Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT ADR

TLKMIndonesia Stock Exchange

SectorCommunication Services

IndustryTelecom Services

Beta (adjusted)0.56

Intrinsic Value $19.42median of 5 methods · middle span $19-$64based on filings through 31 Dec 2024

Market Price $12.75Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 52% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (+52%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $12.6B

Enterprise Value $12B

Shares Outstanding 985.8M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend18 Jun 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Telkom's first-half 2026 operating indicators show a constructive mobile recovery and tangible progress in infrastructure monetization: mobile ARPU rose 9.0% year over year, digital-data revenue rose 11.0%, and InfraNexia's external-customer revenue grew 31%. The completed second-stage InfraCo transfer also created a focused wholesale platform controlling more than 90% of Telkom's former network infrastructure assets. Offsetting these positives, fixed-broadband subscribers declined to 9.5 million from 10.1 million, price competition remained active, and substantial portfolio restructuring and strategic-holding execution remain underway. A neutral Hold is therefore appropriate pending evidence that mobile monetization persists, fixed broadband stabilizes and InfraNexia converts its enlarged asset base into durable external growth.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets1 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$18.35

Mean target$18.35

High · most bullish analyst$18.35

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$18.3520%

Mobile ARPU falls back below the first-half 2026 level, fixed-broadband subscribers decline further, and the InfraCo and strategic-holding transition does not deliver sustained external growth or operating benefits. Ongoing portfolio restructuring then creates complexity without sufficient offsetting monetization.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$18.3555%

Matches the consensus mean

Mobile monetization remains broadly resilient and InfraNexia continues gaining external customers, but fixed-broadband competition and the complexity of group restructuring limit the pace of improvement.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$18.3525%

Mobile pricing discipline and customer-value management sustain ARPU and digital-data growth, fixed-mobile convergence improves retention, and InfraNexia accelerates third-party monetization of its approximately 112,000-kilometer fiber footprint. Successful expansion of integrated connectivity, cloud, data-center, cybersecurity and AI offerings provides an additional B2B growth channel.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Mobile monetization improved in the first half of 2026: mobile ARPU reached IDR45,600, up 9.0% year over year, while digital-data revenue grew 11.0%.
InfraNexia's external-customer revenue grew 31% year over year to IDR939 billion, providing early evidence that the neutral wholesale model can attract demand outside TelkomGroup.
The completed second-stage InfraCo transfer gave InfraNexia more than 90% of Telkom's former network-infrastructure assets, including approximately 112,000 kilometers of fiber and 26,000 kilometers of domestic submarine cable.

Key Investment Risks

Fixed-broadband subscribers declined to 9.5 million from 10.1 million a year earlier, while Telkom explicitly identified continuing market price competition.
The investment case depends on executing a broad transformation involving streamlining, a strategic-holding operating model, infrastructure separation and centralized data-center management.
B2B ICT remained affected by portfolio restructuring and streamlining, while the international portfolio was still shifting away from traditional voice hubbing toward higher-margin connectivity and digital solutions.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.