Telephone And Data Systems Inc Dossier
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SectorCommunication Services IndustryTelecom Services Beta (adjusted)0.56 Intrinsic Value $18.08median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $33.92Price as of 30 Sep 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 47% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $3.9B Enterprise Value $2.4B Shares Outstanding 120.1M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date9 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend16 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Telephone & Data Systems Inc. (TDS) is undergoing a significant structural transition, shifting its core value from legacy wireless retail toward fiber-optic infrastructure ownership and tower assets. The company's Q1 2026 results demonstrated a sharp turnaround to profitability, heavily driven by a $150.9 million book gain from the $1,018.0 million sale of wireless spectrum licenses. While fiber expansion continues with momentum (reaching 1.1 million marketable addresses), legacy copper and cable market headwinds persist, guiding telecom revenues toward the lower half of full-year expectations. Furthermore, TDS's non-binding proposal to acquire all outstanding shares of Array Digital Infrastructure in an all-stock transaction introduces valuation and integration complexities. Given these moving parts, a Hold recommendation is warranted until there is greater clarity on the execution of the fiber buildout and the finalization of the Array buyout. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$47.00 Mean target$49.00 High · most bullish analyst$51.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The bear case reflects prolonged headwinds in legacy copper and cable markets, combined with execution delays or cost overruns in the capital-intensive fiber buildout program. Intense competition from cable incumbents and 5G Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) providers limits broadband net additions. Additionally, failure to complete the Array transaction or unfavorable terms could depress investor sentiment and strain free cash flow. Base CaseCentral scenario The base case assumes TDS successfully deploys 200,000 to 250,000 new fiber service addresses in 2026, offsetting legacy wireline declines. The proposed all-stock merger with Array Digital Infrastructure is completed near the proposed 0.86 exchange ratio, consolidating tower cash flows and simplifying the corporate structure. Under this scenario, steady fiber ARPU growth and recurring tower rental income support a gradual valuation recovery. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |