Telefonica Brasil SA ADR Dossier - Source-backed chat

Telefonica Brasil SA ADR

VIVT3B3 S.A. - Brasil, Bolsa, Balcão

SectorCommunication Services

IndustryTelecom Services

Beta (adjusted)0.47

Intrinsic Value $24.82median of 5 methods · middle span $2-$177based on filings through 31 Dec 2025

Market Price $11.45Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 117% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (+117%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $18.3B

Shares Outstanding 1.6B diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date10 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend28 Jul 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

The issuer's analyst-coverage table, updated August 20, 2026, shows a mixed recommendation profile led by Hold at 42.1%, versus Buy at 36.8% and Sell at 21.1%. The published 12-month ADR target averages $15.44, while the issuer's IR homepage displayed VIV at $11.29 when accessed. The valuation opportunity is supported by a substantial 2Q26 operating base—R$15.8 billion of revenue, R$6.6 billion of EBITDA, 118.8 million customers and 32.0 million FTTH homes passed—and continued 2026 shareholder distributions.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets8 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$12.58

Mean target$14.96

High · most bullish analyst$19.01

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$12.5825%

The bear case assumes no rerating from the $11.29 ADR price displayed by the issuer's IR site, reflecting weaker quarterly execution or deterioration in the currently mixed analyst outlook.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$14.9655%

Matches the consensus mean

It assumes broadly stable execution from the 2Q26 operating baseline, with the mixed analyst recommendation profile limiting confidence in a move toward the high target.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$19.0120%

The bull case uses the issuer-published high 12-month ADR target. It assumes the company sustains or improves upon its 2Q26 revenue and EBITDA baseline, continues expanding its fiber footprint and maintains recurring shareholder distributions.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Meaningful operating scale was evident in 2Q26, with R$15.8 billion of revenue, R$6.6 billion of EBITDA, 118.8 million customers and 32.0 million FTTH homes passed.
Shareholder remuneration remained active in 2026 through a R$4.0 billion capital reduction and seven interest-on-capital declarations through August 14.

Key Investment Risks

Analyst opinion is divided: Hold is the largest category at 42.1%, but 21.1% of published recommendations are Sell.
Issuer-published 12-month ADR targets range from $13.90 to $19.50, indicating material uncertainty around the appropriate valuation outcome.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.