Telecom Argentina SA ADR Dossier
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SectorCommunication Services IndustryTelecom Services Beta (adjusted)0.55 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $12.27Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $5.3B Enterprise Value $4.3T Shares Outstanding 430.7M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date9 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend24 Nov 2025 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Telecom Argentina SA (TEO) represents a compelling consolidation play in the Argentine telecommunications sector. Following its acquisition of Telefónica Móviles Argentina (TMA), the market is transitioning from a three-player to a highly profitable two-player structure. TEO is poised to capture significant operational synergies, driving real service revenue growth and EBITDA margin expansion. While macroeconomic volatility and hyperinflation accounting (IAS 29) present structural risks, the company's robust free cash flow generation, successful debt refinancing, and aggressive FTTH/5G rollouts position it as a prime beneficiary of Argentina's eventual economic stabilization. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$9.20 Mean target$15.34 High · most bullish analyst$19.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $9.2015% Severe regulatory remedies force TEO to divest significant subscriber market share and spectrum, diluting the strategic value of the TMA acquisition. A sharp devaluation of the Argentine Peso and a return to hyperinflationary spirals compress consumer purchasing power, leading to high subscriber churn and severe foreign exchange losses on USD-denominated debt. Base CaseCentral scenario $15.3450% Matches the consensus meanThe TMA transaction is approved with standard regulatory remedies, including moderate spectrum divestitures. TEO successfully maintains its market-leading position in broadband and mobile, leveraging its unified 'Personal' brand. Real service revenues grow at a low-single-digit rate, and consolidated EBITDA margins stabilize around 35% amid disciplined CapEx. Bull CaseUpside scenario $19.0035% Rapid regulatory approval of the TMA transaction with minimal spectrum/subscriber divestitures allows TEO to fully integrate assets and realize maximum synergies. Continued real appreciation of the Argentine Peso generates substantial non-operating financial gains, while successful tariff adjustments outpace inflation, driving EBITDA margins toward 40%. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |