Teladoc Health Inc Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryHealth Information Services Beta (adjusted)1.74 Intrinsic Value $15.11median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $5.80Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 160% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+160%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.1B Enterprise Value $279.4M Shares Outstanding 181.3M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Teladoc Health is undergoing a critical strategic pivot from a cyclical, high-acquisition-cost direct-to-consumer (D2C) model to a more stable, insurance-reimbursed B2B and payor-supported platform. While the Integrated Care segment provides a stable enterprise foundation, the struggling BetterHelp mental health segment continues to drag down overall performance, with paying users declining 9% year-over-year in Q1 2026. The transition of BetterHelp to accept insurance is a credible long-term growth lever that could reduce customer churn and lower customer acquisition costs, but near-term execution risks and persistent net losses justify a cautious Hold stance until operational stabilization and margin expansion become more visible. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$5.50 Mean target$7.74 High · most bullish analyst$10.50 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $5.5015% The rollout of insurance credentialing for BetterHelp faces regulatory or operational delays, failing to offset the steep decline in cash-pay subscribers. High marketing and technology investments continue to pressure margins, and free cash flow falls short of the guided $130M-$170M, leading to further valuation multiple compression. Base CaseCentral scenario $7.7460% Matches the consensus meanTeladoc achieves its reaffirmed 2026 guidance, with consolidated revenue of $2.48B to $2.58B and adjusted EBITDA of $267M to $306M. BetterHelp's insurance revenue scales to the projected $90M-$105M range, offsetting the ongoing decline in out-of-pocket cash-pay users, while Integrated Care margins stabilize around 15-16%. Bull CaseUpside scenario $10.5025% BetterHelp's transition to insurance-covered services accelerates rapidly, exceeding the full-year target of $90M-$105M and driving a significant reduction in customer acquisition costs. Simultaneously, the Integrated Care segment successfully cross-sells its AI-driven Pulse platform, leading to higher-margin enterprise contracts and driving overall adjusted EBITDA margins toward the high end of guidance. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |