Teck Resources Ltd Dossier - Source-backed chat

Teck Resources Ltd

TECK.BToronto Stock Exchange

SectorMaterials

IndustryCopper

Beta (adjusted)1.40

Intrinsic Value $29.07median of 5 methods · middle span $21-$29based on filings through 31 Dec 2025

Market Price $65.22Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 55% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (-55%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $32B

Enterprise Value $31.8B

Shares Outstanding 493.8M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend15 Sep 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Teck entered the second half of 2026 with materially stronger copper output, three consecutive quarters of stable Quebrada Blanca performance and copper unit costs below its full-year guidance range. The principal near-term value event is now the all-share merger with Anglo American, which remains conditional on final regulatory approval and is expected between September 2026 and March 2027. A Hold stance balances improving execution and substantial stated combination benefits against pending regulatory completion, integration risk and unfinished Quebrada Blanca tailings infrastructure.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets4 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$36.57

Mean target$54.17

High · most bullish analyst$69.07

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$36.5720%

Final regulatory approval or closing is delayed beyond March 2027, Quebrada Blanca tailings work causes renewed constraints or additional capital requirements, or weaker commodity prices reverse part of the operating improvement evident in the first half of 2026.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$54.1755%

Matches the consensus mean

The merger closes within the September 2026–March 2027 window, Teck delivers within its 2026 copper production and cost guidance, and Quebrada Blanca continues operating consistently while remaining infrastructure is completed.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$69.0725%

The merger closes near the beginning of its announced window, Quebrada Blanca sustains stable production while completing key tailings infrastructure, and Anglo Teck captures the stated US$800 million annual pre-tax synergy opportunity plus longer-term Collahuasi–Quebrada Blanca optimization benefits.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Q2 2026 copper production increased 25% year over year to 135,900 tonnes while copper net cash unit costs fell to US$1.64 per pound.
Quebrada Blanca delivered a third consecutive quarter of stable performance, producing 55,800 tonnes of copper in Q2 2026 with recovery of 83.3%.
The proposed combination targets approximately US$800 million of annual pre-tax synergies and an additional US$1.4 billion annual average underlying EBITDA uplift from Collahuasi–Quebrada Blanca optimization during 2030–2049.

Key Investment Risks

The merger remained subject to necessary competition and regulatory approvals as of the latest August 2026 company update.
Quebrada Blanca still required tailings-management infrastructure work; advancing Rock Bench 6 could add approximately US$100 million of 2026 capital expenditure.
Recent earnings improvement was partly driven by exceptionally strong copper prices, leaving results exposed to commodity-price normalization.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.