TechnipFMC plc Dossier
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SectorEnergy IndustryOil & Gas Equipment & Services Beta (adjusted)0.83 Intrinsic Value $77.01median of 6 methods · middle span $32-$293based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $68.85Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 12% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $27B Enterprise Value $26.4B Shares Outstanding 400.5M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date22 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend18 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary TechnipFMC is executing strongly: second-quarter 2026 revenue increased 9.0% year over year, adjusted EBITDA margin reached 21.1%, Subsea backlog was USD 15.83 billion, and first-half free cash flow reached USD 764.8 million. Management continues to expect USD 10 billion of 2026 Subsea inbound and a further order step-up in 2027. However, the official closing price of USD 75.84 on August 28, 2026 already discounts substantial execution and offshore-cycle strength. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$45.00 Mean target$75.81 High · most bullish analyst$87.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $58.0019% Subsea awards slip below the USD 10 billion expectation, project mix or execution pushes Subsea adjusted EBITDA margin below the 21% guidance floor, and free cash flow falls short of USD 1.3 billion. Additional downside would arise if the Surface Technologies contraction persists or offshore customer spending weakens. Base CaseCentral scenario $75.8158% Matches the consensus meanSubsea orders broadly meet the USD 10 billion 2026 expectation, revenue and margin finish near the upper portions of guidance, and free cash flow remains within the USD 1.3-1.45 billion range. These outcomes support the operating trajectory but provide limited valuation expansion from the August 28 official price of USD 75.84. Bull CaseUpside scenario $92.0023% Sustained offshore awards, including the post-quarter Azule West Hub Tails contract, lift Subsea inbound to at least management's USD 10 billion expectation and support the anticipated 2027 step-up. Strong project execution keeps Subsea margins near the second-quarter level while free cash flow reaches or exceeds the upper end of guidance, permitting continued distributions. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |