Team Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Team Inc

TISINYSE

SectorIndustrials

IndustryEnvironmental & Facilities Services

Beta (adjusted)1.07

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $28.42Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $130.3M

Enterprise Value $421.9M

Shares Outstanding 4.6M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date12 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend3 Feb 1993

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Team, Inc. (TISI) is demonstrating a solid operational turnaround under its new leadership, highlighted by strong Q1 2026 revenue growth of 8.3% and a 45.2% increase in Adjusted EBITDA. The company's strategic focus on workforce investment, cost efficiency, and targeted market expansion is yielding positive results, particularly in its Inspection & Heat Treating (IHT) and Mechanical Services (MS) segments. However, the company remains constrained by a heavy debt load of $306.5 million and negative free cash flow, which limits near-term upside. A 'Hold' recommendation is warranted as the market monitors the execution of its full-year 2026 guidance and the dilution risks associated with preferred-stock financing and warrants.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$13.5025%

The bear case reflects potential project delays, labor shortages, or pricing pressures in core industrial end markets. If turnaround activity softens, revenue could fall below the low end of guidance ($920 million), compressing gross margins. High fixed-cost absorption challenges and elevated interest expenses on its $306.5 million debt load would widen net losses. Negative free cash flow could persist, forcing further reliance on credit facilities and increasing liquidity risks.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$18.5060%

The base case assumes Team, Inc. successfully executes its 2026 strategic plan, achieving its guided revenue range of $920 million to $945 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $68 million to $73 million. Operational efficiencies and pricing discipline are expected to drive gross margin expansion to the guided $240 million to $260 million range. Free cash flow is projected to turn positive in the second half of 2026, supported by disciplined capital expenditures of $13 million to $14 million. Debt levels are expected to stabilize, allowing the company to gradually deleverage.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$25.0015%

The bull case assumes Team, Inc. accelerates its expansion into high-margin, less cyclical sectors such as LNG, AI-driven data centers, and aerospace, exceeding the high end of its 2026 revenue guidance. Stronger-than-expected operating leverage and rapid execution of cost-reduction plans drive Adjusted EBITDA margins above historical levels, leading to significant free cash flow generation and rapid deleveraging.

Scenarios reflect our research view at the research date.

Key Investment Merits

Strong top-line momentum with Q1 2026 revenue up 8.3% year-over-year to $215.1 million.
Significant improvement in Adjusted EBITDA, rising 45.2% to $7.7 million in Q1 2026.
Clear full-year 2026 guidance indicating mid-single-digit revenue growth and mid-teens Adjusted EBITDA growth.
Favorable market position as a leading provider of specialty industrial services in a highly fragmented industry.

Key Investment Risks

Heavy debt burden of $306.5 million as of March 31, 2026, which limits financial flexibility.
Persistent net losses ($11.3 million in Q1 2026) and negative free cash flow (-$11.5 million in Q1 2026).
Dilution risks from preferred-stock financing and outstanding warrants (e.g., Stellex transactions).
Cyclical demand patterns and competitive bidding environments in the refining, petrochemical, and power sectors.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Failure to achieve the low end of full-year 2026 revenue guidance ($920 million).
Adjusted EBITDA falling below $65 million for the full year 2026.
Total debt increasing above $320 million or liquidity dropping below $30 million.
Significant delays or cancellations in major customer turnaround projects.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.