TD Synnex Corp Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustryElectronics & Computer Distribution Beta (adjusted)1.30 Intrinsic Value $202.31median of 6 methods · middle span $168-$506based on filings through 31 May 2026 Market Price $271.76Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 26% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $21.5B Enterprise Value $24B Shares Outstanding 78.9M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Last ex-dividend17 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary TD SYNNEX entered the end of Q3 FY2026 with exceptionally strong reported momentum: Q2 revenue increased 31.0%, non-GAAP diluted EPS increased 62.2%, and non-GAAP operating margin expanded 37 basis points. Management nevertheless guided Q3 revenue and non-GAAP EPS below the unusually strong Q2 levels, while Q2 and first-half free cash flow were negative because of substantial working-capital investment. The balance of rapid demand growth, better operating leverage, gross-margin pressure, and weak near-term cash conversion supports a neutral stance until Q3 results establish how much of the acceleration is durable. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$278.00 Mean target$333.55 High · most bullish analyst$374.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $278.0020% Revenue or non-GAAP EPS falls below management's Q3 outlook, gross-margin pressure intensifies, or another quarter of negative free cash flow indicates that rapid growth is consuming more working capital than anticipated. A slowdown in IT spending, unfavorable vendor or customer developments, trade-policy disruption, or supply constraints would amplify downside risk. Base CaseCentral scenario $333.5550% Matches the consensus meanQ3 results remain within management's $18.2-$19.0 billion revenue and $4.25-$4.75 non-GAAP diluted EPS ranges, indicating continued year-over-year growth but sequential normalization from Q2. Operating profitability remains resilient while working-capital consumption begins to moderate. Bull CaseUpside scenario $374.0030% Broad-based strength in Distribution and Hyve persists, Q3 results meet or exceed the high ends of management's ranges, and operating leverage continues despite mix-related gross-margin pressure. Sustained demand for accelerated computing, cloud, cybersecurity, and AI infrastructure would reinforce the view that Q2 represented durable growth rather than a temporary surge. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |