TC Energy Corp Dossier
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SectorEnergy IndustryOil & Gas Storage & Transportation Beta (adjusted)0.97 Intrinsic Value $38.76median of 6 methods · middle span $31-$44based on filings through 31 Dec 2025 Market Price $58.62Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 34% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $61.1B Enterprise Value $63.7B Shares Outstanding 1B diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend29 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary TC Energy's latest operating evidence is constructive: first-half 2026 comparable EBITDA increased to C$6.036 billion, management expects full-year comparable EBITDA at the upper end of C$11.6-C$11.8 billion, and approximately C$3 billion of projects were sanctioned during the first half. The quality of the outlook is supported by a predominantly regulated or long-term contracted earnings base and a secured capital program. The neutral recommendation reflects continuing leverage and execution sensitivity. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$58.58 Mean target$67.29 High · most bullish analyst$73.51 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $58.5820% Comparable EBITDA falls below the 2026 outlook, project schedules or costs deteriorate, or leverage moves above the latest reported 4.8x level. Regulatory delays, weaker utilization or adverse rate-case outcomes could also reduce the expected contribution from the secured growth program. Base CaseCentral scenario $67.2955% Matches the consensus meanComparable EBITDA finishes near the upper half of the C$11.6-C$11.8 billion 2026 range, sanctioned projects progress substantially as planned, and leverage gradually moves toward 4.75x. Bull CaseUpside scenario $73.5125% TC Energy reaches or exceeds the upper end of its 2026 comparable EBITDA outlook, continues placing projects in service on time and on budget, and converts North American gas and power demand into additional long-duration contracted expansions. This would reinforce the company's five-to-seven per cent annual comparable EBITDA growth outlook through 2028. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |