Taylor Morrison Home Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

Taylor Morrison Home Corp

TMHCNYSE

SectorConsumer Durables

IndustryHomebuilding

Beta (adjusted)1.29

Intrinsic Value $44.68median of 5 methods · middle span $44-$52based on filings through 31 Mar 2026

Market Price $72.45Price as of 23 Jul 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 38% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $6.7B

Enterprise Value $8.4B

Shares Outstanding 95.2M diluted

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Taylor Morrison Home Corp. (TMHC) is currently in a definitive agreement to be acquired by Berkshire Hathaway for $72.50 per share in cash, valuing the company's equity at approximately $6.8 billion and total enterprise value at $8.5 billion. The transaction, announced on May 31, 2026, represents a 24% premium over the pre-announcement closing price of $58.50. Because the stock is trading close to the acquisition price and the board has unanimously approved the deal, the investment thesis has shifted from a fundamental growth story to a merger-arbitrage play. A 'Hold' recommendation is warranted as the stock price is anchored near the $72.50 buyout price, offering limited remaining upside but solid downside protection, with the transaction expected to close in the second half of 2026.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets4 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$49.00

Mean target$66.75

High · most bullish analyst$73.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$49.005%

The merger agreement is terminated due to unexpected regulatory hurdles, antitrust issues, or severe macroeconomic deterioration in the housing market, causing the stock to fall back to its pre-announcement fundamental valuation range.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$66.7585%

Matches the consensus mean

The acquisition by Berkshire Hathaway proceeds smoothly and closes in the second half of 2026 at the agreed-upon price of $72.50 per share in cash.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$73.0010%

A competing higher bid emerges from another major homebuilder or private equity firm, or the transaction closes ahead of schedule with minimal regulatory friction, allowing investors to redeploy capital sooner.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Definitive cash buyout offer of $72.50 per share provides a highly certain exit valuation and downside protection.
Strong backing from Berkshire Hathaway validates Taylor Morrison's land-light strategy and premier resort lifestyle brand (Esplanade).
Resilient operational performance, including a 23% sequential increase in sold backlog and a 30% reduction in finished unsold spec inventory in Q1 2026.

Key Investment Risks

Deal failure risk if shareholders reject the transaction or regulatory approvals are delayed or blocked.
Opportunity cost of holding the stock with capped upside compared to other equity investments during the pending merger period.
Persistent macroeconomic headwinds in the housing market, including elevated mortgage rates and labor constraints, which could impact operations if the deal falls through.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Termination of the merger agreement by either Taylor Morrison or Berkshire Hathaway.
Regulatory intervention or lawsuits seeking to block the transaction.
A material adverse effect on Taylor Morrison's business operations or financial condition prior to closing.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.