Taylor Devices Inc Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryMachinery Beta (adjusted)0.96 Intrinsic Value $69.65median of 6 methods · middle span $32-$180based on filings through 31 May 2026 Market Price $61.11Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 14% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $197.1M Enterprise Value $196.2M Shares Outstanding 3.2M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date1 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend4 Dec 1989 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Taylor Devices, Inc. (TAYD) is a highly specialized niche manufacturer of shock absorption, seismic protection, and motion control systems. The company has demonstrated exceptional profitability and operational execution, particularly within its Aerospace/Defense segment, which has driven record-high sales in the first nine months of FY26. TAYD maintains a fortress balance sheet with zero debt and substantial cash reserves. However, the company faces near-term headwinds due to a sequential decline in its order backlog, which fell to $20.8 million at the end of Q3 FY26 from $27.1 million at the start of the fiscal year. This decline is primarily attributed to delays in contract awards following the U.S. government shutdown in late 2025. While long-term demand drivers in defense modernization and infrastructure seismic retrofitting remain robust, the lack of near-term backlog visibility and reliance on large, unpredictable projects warrant a cautious Hold recommendation until backlog stabilization is demonstrated. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$67.00 Mean target$67.00 High · most bullish analyst$67.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario In the bear case, prolonged delays in government project approvals and a broader downturn in the global commercial construction market continue to depress the structural and industrial segments. The order backlog falls below $18 million, leading to uneven revenue recognition and underutilization of manufacturing facilities. Gross margins compress below 38% due to an unfavorable sales mix and rising raw material costs. Base CaseCentral scenario In the base case, Taylor Devices successfully navigates the temporary delays in government contract awards. The company's newly introduced Taylor Damped Moment Frame (TDMF) gains traction, securing additional commercial orders on the West Coast. Aerospace and defense demand remains steady, allowing the company to maintain a gross margin of approximately 40-44%. Backlog stabilizes around the $22-25 million range by late FY27, supporting steady single-digit revenue growth. Bull CaseUpside scenario Taylor Devices' bull case centers on its strategic shift toward the high-margin Aerospace and Defense sector, which now accounts for approximately two-thirds of revenue. This shift provides highly predictable, recurring revenue through long-cycle defense contracts and 'black programs' that are less price-sensitive. Additionally, the company maintains a debt-free balance sheet with substantial net cash, a tight share structure (~3.1M shares outstanding) that avoids dilution, and strong tailwinds from global infrastructure hardening and increased military spending. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |