TAT Technologies Ltd Dossier - Source-backed chat

TAT Technologies Ltd

TATTNASDAQ

SectorIndustrials

IndustryAerospace & Defense

Beta (adjusted)1.01

Intrinsic Value $30.52median of 6 methods · middle span $22-$57based on filings through 31 Dec 2025

Market Price $34.83Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 12% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $452.7M

Enterprise Value $413.2M

Shares Outstanding 12.3M diluted

Moat Rating Narrow

Next Earnings Date12 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend5 Jun 2017

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

TAT Technologies Ltd. (TATT) is a leading provider of solutions and services to the commercial and military aerospace and ground defense industries, specializing in thermal management, power and actuation, and MRO services. The company is experiencing record customer demand, with its backlog and long-term agreements reaching an all-time high of approximately $580 million as of Q1 2026. Despite short-term supply chain headwinds that delayed landing gear and APU completions in Q1 2026, the company's underlying fundamentals remain exceptionally strong. Operational efficiencies are driving gross margin expansion, and a robust net cash position post-2025 capital raise provides significant flexibility for accretive M&A. The stock is highly attractive, trading at a discount relative to its peers and historical growth trajectory.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets7 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$53.00

Mean target$60.71

High · most bullish analyst$66.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$50.0020%

In the bear case, persistent OEM supplier parts shortages and labor constraints continue to delay completions in the landing gear and APU segments, capping revenue growth. Integration challenges or overpayment on M&A targets could pressure margins and cash conversion, leading to multiple contraction.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$56.6750%

The base case assumes a gradual recovery in the aerospace supply chain through the remainder of 2026. Strong demand continues to support backlog growth, and gross margins remain stable or expand slightly due to operational efficiencies. The company achieves meaningful full-year revenue and EBITDA growth, with valuation supported by solid earnings visibility into 2027 and 2028.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$67.8530%

In the bull case, supply chain constraints ease rapidly in the second half of 2026, allowing TAT to clear its open work orders and accelerate APU and landing gear deliveries. Strong organic growth is augmented by the successful execution of at least one highly accretive M&A transaction, driving significant revenue and EBITDA expansion. Valuation multiples expand toward peer averages.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Record backlog and long-term agreements of ~$580 million providing high revenue visibility.
Strong secular tailwinds in the aerospace MRO sector driven by an aging global commercial fleet and rising defense spending.
Improving operational efficiency and cost control, leading to gross margin expansion (24.4% in Q1 2026).
Robust balance sheet with $51.2 million in cash and a low debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 0.45, supporting M&A flexibility.

Key Investment Risks

Persistent aerospace supply chain disruptions and OEM parts shortages delaying product completions.
Dependence on key commercial and military contracts which are subject to unexpected adjustments or delays.
Potential execution and integration risks associated with future M&A transactions.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A prolonged deterioration in the aerospace supply chain that structurally impairs TAT's ability to complete work orders.
A significant decline in the backlog or cancellation of major long-term MRO agreements.
Failure to maintain positive operating cash flow or a material deterioration in gross margins.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.