Tarsus Pharmaceuticals Inc Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryBiotechnology Beta (adjusted)0.67 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $75.46Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $3.5B Enterprise Value $3.4B Shares Outstanding 44.1M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Tarsus Pharmaceuticals is a high-growth commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company with a validated category-creating asset in XDEMVY, the first and only FDA-approved treatment for Demodex blepharitis. With a massive addressable market of 25 million patients in the U.S. and strong commercial execution, XDEMVY is on a clear trajectory toward blockbuster status with peak sales potential exceeding $2 billion. The company's robust cash position of approximately $389 million provides a comfortable runway through projected profitability in 2027, minimizing dilution risks. Furthermore, the pipeline features high-potential Phase 2 assets (TP-04 for ocular rosacea and TP-05 for Lyme disease prevention) that offer significant valuation upside with major clinical catalysts expected in the first half of 2027. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$84.00 Mean target$94.86 High · most bullish analyst$104.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario XDEMVY sales growth decelerates due to persistent seasonal headwinds, deductible resets, or higher-than-expected gross-to-net discounts. Payer pushback or competitive alternatives limit market penetration. Clinical setbacks or safety concerns emerge in the Phase 2 trials for TP-04 or TP-05, limiting the company's long-term pipeline valuation. Base CaseCentral scenario XDEMVY continues its steady commercial trajectory, meeting the FY 2026 net product sales guidance of $670 million to $700 million with strong gross margins of ~93%. The company achieves profitability by 2027 as operating leverage kicks in. Phase 2 trials for TP-04 and TP-05 progress on schedule with positive topline data in H1 2027, validating the broader lotilaner platform. Bull CaseUpside scenario XDEMVY adoption accelerates rapidly beyond expectations, driven by highly effective DTC campaigns and deeper penetration among eye care professionals (ECPs). International commercialization, particularly in China following the recent TP-03 approval and $15 million milestone, scales faster than anticipated. Pipeline readouts for TP-04 and TP-05 in H1 2027 demonstrate best-in-class efficacy, positioning Tarsus as a multi-blockbuster franchise. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |