Targa Resources Corp Dossier
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SectorEnergy IndustryOil & Gas Storage & Transportation Beta (adjusted)0.81 Intrinsic Value $301.87median of 6 methods · middle span $127-$401based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $279.31Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 8% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $59.9B Enterprise Value $79.3B Shares Outstanding 214.2M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend31 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Targa entered the second half of 2026 with record quarterly adjusted EBITDA and record Permian, NGL transportation, fractionation and export volumes. Its 20-year, fee-based ExxonMobil agreements and three additional Delaware Basin plants extend the contracted growth runway, but the updated $5.0 billion 2026 growth-capital program materially raises execution and funding demands. Consolidated debt was $19.578 billion at June 30, 2026. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$257.00 Mean target$300.05 High · most bullish analyst$335.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $257.0023% Project delays, spending above the updated $5.0 billion capital estimate, weaker Permian activity or renewed Waha constraints reduce utilization and cash conversion. The downside would be amplified by the $19.578 billion consolidated debt balance and the number of large projects being developed concurrently. Base CaseCentral scenario $300.0556% Matches the consensus meanTarga delivers adjusted EBITDA within the $5.7-$5.9 billion 2026 range and broadly executes its expanded $5.0 billion capital program while retaining strong utilization across its integrated Permian-to-Gulf-Coast system. Bull CaseUpside scenario $335.0021% Targa reaches the upper end of 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance, sustains double-digit Permian volume growth and completes its processing, pipeline, fractionation and export projects on schedule. The 20-year ExxonMobil dedications support utilization of the three new Delaware plants and Bull Run II, extending fee-based growth through the next investment cycle. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |