Tapestry Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Tapestry Inc

TPRNYSE

SectorConsumer Discretionary

IndustryApparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods

Beta (adjusted)1.30

Intrinsic Value $107.42median of 6 methods · middle span $47-$247based on filings through 27 Jun 2026

Market Price $119.24Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 10% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $23.8B

Enterprise Value $25.2B

Shares Outstanding 210.2M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend4 Sep 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Tapestry entered fiscal 2027 with strong operating momentum after fiscal 2026 revenue increased 14% to $8.0 billion, margins expanded, and management initiated an outlook for mid-single-digit revenue growth, further operating-margin expansion, and low-double-digit EPS growth. Without a defensible valuation anchor, a neutral Hold recommendation is more appropriate than an unqualified Buy.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets20 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$88.00

Mean target$167.00

High · most bullish analyst$232.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$88.0019%

Coach momentum moderates materially, consolidated revenue growth falls below management's mid-single-digit outlook, and operating-margin expansion fails to materialize, causing EPS growth to fall short of the low-double-digit objective.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$167.0058%

Matches the consensus mean

Tapestry broadly delivers its fiscal 2027 outlook: mid-single-digit revenue growth, continued operating-margin expansion, and low-double-digit EPS growth.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$232.0023%

Tapestry exceeds its fiscal 2027 outlook as Coach sustains strong consumer demand, consolidated revenue grows above the mid-single-digit objective, and operating leverage produces EPS growth above management's low-double-digit expectation.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Fiscal 2026 revenue reached $8.0 billion, increasing 14%, with Coach growth of 24% identified as the principal growth driver.
Fiscal 2026 gross and operating margins expanded, $1.7 billion was returned through dividends and repurchases, and the board approved a 16% dividend increase.

Key Investment Risks

Management's fiscal 2027 mid-single-digit revenue-growth outlook represents a substantial moderation from the 14% growth reported for fiscal 2026.
The fiscal 2026 growth profile depended heavily on Coach's 24% increase, making sustained Coach demand important to consolidated performance.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Quality Pillars Members

This section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown.

Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.