Tango Therapeutics Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Tango Therapeutics Inc

TNGXNASDAQ

SectorHealth Care

IndustryBiotechnology

Beta (adjusted)1.10

Intrinsic Value $10.28median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $24.45Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 58% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (-58%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $4.1B

Enterprise Value $3.8B

Shares Outstanding 154.3M diluted

Next Earnings Date31 Dec 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Tango Therapeutics is a high-conviction precision oncology play leveraging synthetic lethality. The company's lead asset, vopimetostat (an MTA-cooperative PRMT5 inhibitor), recently demonstrated a highly impressive 92% objective response rate (ORR) and a 90% 6-month PFS rate when combined with Revolution Medicines' daraxonrasib in patients with MTAP-deleted, RAS-mutant metastatic pancreatic cancer. This clinical breakthrough significantly de-risks the platform and sets up a clear path toward a Phase 3 pivotal trial in first-line pancreatic cancer. Backed by a robust cash position—further bolstered by a massive $600 million upsized public offering in June 2026—Tango is well-capitalized to advance its deep pipeline of synthetic lethal therapies.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets12 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$24.00

Mean target$44.58

High · most bullish analyst$69.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$24.0020%

The planned Phase 3 trial faces regulatory delays or fails to show overall survival benefits in pancreatic cancer. Slower physician uptake, high R&D cash burn, or safety concerns in combination cohorts limit commercial viability, causing the stock to trade down toward its cash floor.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$44.5850%

Matches the consensus mean

Vopimetostat combinations successfully transition into Phase 3 development for 1L pancreatic cancer with supportive regulatory feedback. Monotherapy lung cancer and glioblastoma readouts in H2 2026 confirm therapeutic activity, maintaining a strong buy-side consensus and steady upward valuation trajectory.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$69.0030%

The Phase 3 trial of vopimetostat + daraxonrasib in 1L MTAP-deleted pancreatic cancer succeeds, establishing a chemotherapy-free standard of care. Rapid clinical progress in the lung cancer cohort and brain-penetrant TNG456 in glioblastoma unlocks multi-billion dollar market opportunities, driving substantial valuation expansion.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Exceptional early efficacy with a 92% ORR in heavily pretreated MTAP-deleted pancreatic cancer patients.
Strong strategic synergy with Revolution Medicines' clinically validated RAS(ON) inhibitors.
Robust balance sheet with $379.8M in cash (as of Q1 2026) plus an additional $600M raised in June 2026, extending the runway deep into the late 2020s.
Broad precision oncology pipeline targeting high-value synthetic lethality pathways (PRMT5, USP1, CoREST).

Key Investment Risks

Clinical development risk inherent to early-stage oncology pipelines.
Regulatory hurdles in securing FDA approval for pivotal studies without traditional overall survival endpoints.
Intense competition in the PRMT5 and KRAS inhibitor landscapes from major pharmaceutical players.
High operational cash burn typical of late-stage clinical trials.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Failure to initiate the Phase 3 trial of vopimetostat + daraxonrasib in 1L pancreatic cancer by early 2027.
Severe adverse safety signals emerging from the ongoing combination or monotherapy trials.
Disappointing clinical efficacy in the upcoming H2 2026 lung cancer or glioblastoma readouts.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.