Tamboran Resources Corp Dossier
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SectorEnergy IndustryOil & Gas E&P Beta (adjusted)0.52 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $33.18Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $1.2B Enterprise Value $1.1B Shares Outstanding 34.9M diluted Next Earnings Date12 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Tamboran Resources Corp (NYSE: TBN, ASX: TBN) is transitioning from a pure-play unconventional shale gas explorer to a pre-production developer in Australia's Beetaloo Basin. The company's investment thesis is anchored by its massive operated acreage position (the largest in the basin), successful modern drilling and stimulation programs confirming technical viability, and a binding Gas Sales Agreement (GSA) with the Northern Territory Government for 40 MMcf/d. Backed by a strong pro forma cash position of US$298 million following its April 2026 capital raise, Tamboran is well-funded to achieve its critical near-term catalyst: delivering first gas sales in Calendar Q3 2026. While execution, geological, and capital intensity risks remain, the structural natural gas shortfall on Australia's East Coast provides a powerful macro tailwind. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$45.00 Mean target$55.17 High · most bullish analyst$66.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $45.0025% Mechanical or commissioning delays push first gas into 2027, accelerating cash burn. Well flow rates decline faster than expected, requiring substantial unbudgeted workovers and additional capital. High capital intensity leads to further dilutive equity raises, depressing the share price toward historical lows. Base CaseCentral scenario $55.1760% Matches the consensus meanTamboran successfully commissions the SPCF and begins commercial gas delivery to the Northern Territory Government in late 2026. The company progresses its 2026-2027 drilling and stimulation programs (including SS-7H and SS-8H) within budget, utilizing its US$298 million cash buffer. The stock trades in line with consensus estimates as the Beetaloo Basin is de-risked as a world-class gas province. Bull CaseUpside scenario $66.0025% The Shenandoah South Pilot Project achieves first gas on schedule in Q3 2026, with initial wells demonstrating strong, stable flow rates and low decline profiles. Tamboran successfully expands the Sturt Plateau Compression Facility (SPCF) to 100 MMcf/d by 2028, capitalizing on high Australian East Coast gas premiums. Strategic farm-outs and the Falcon Oil & Gas acquisition unlock massive scale, driving the stock toward the high end of analyst targets. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |