TAL Education Group ADR Dossier
|
SectorConsumer Staples IndustryEducation & Training Services Beta (adjusted)0.45 Intrinsic Value $23.71median of 6 methods · middle span $20-$64based on filings through 28 Feb 2026 Market Price $12.16Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 95% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+95%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $6.7B Enterprise Value $5.6B Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend9 May 2017 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary TAL Education Group has successfully navigated the severe regulatory headwinds of the 'Double Reduction' policy by pivoting toward smart learning solutions, enrichment programs, and digital learning hardware. The company's fiscal year 2026 results demonstrate a robust financial recovery, with net revenues doubling from fiscal year 2024 levels to $3.01 billion and consolidated net income reaching $530.1 million. Backed by a strong cash position of $1.52 billion and a solid market position, TAL is well-positioned to capture the growing demand for non-academic enrichment and technology-driven learning solutions in China. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$11.54 Mean target$16.01 High · most bullish analyst$20.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Base CaseCentral scenario The company continues to expand its enrichment learning programs and smart learning devices, maintaining steady double-digit revenue growth and operating margin expansion. Regulatory pressures remain stable, allowing the company to leverage its brand equity and technology infrastructure to drive profitable growth. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |