Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. Dossier
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SectorCommunication Services IndustryInteractive Home Entertainment Beta (adjusted)0.99 Intrinsic Value $228.18median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $203.62Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 12% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $38.1B Enterprise Value $39.2B Shares Outstanding 189.3M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date9 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Take-Two enters a pivotal release cycle with FY2027 Net Bookings guidance of $8.0-$8.2 billion, Grand Theft Auto VI scheduled for November 19, 2026, and a recurrent-spending base representing 84% of first-quarter Net Bookings. The opportunity is substantial, but so is execution concentration: the fiscal outlook assumes timely delivery and strong market acceptance of the announced slate, while the company continues to identify dependence on Grand Theft Auto and NBA 2K, mobile player-acquisition costs, and launch timing as material variables. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$170.00 Mean target$286.89 High · most bullish analyst$368.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $170.0020% A release delay, weaker-than-expected Grand Theft Auto VI acceptance, deterioration in recurrent spending, or mobile acquisition-cost pressure causes Take-Two to miss the lower end of FY2027 guidance or generate less than the projected operating cash flow. Base CaseCentral scenario $286.8956% Matches the consensus meanThe announced release schedule remains intact, Grand Theft Auto VI supports delivery within the $8.0-$8.2 billion FY2027 Net Bookings range, and recurrent consumer spending remains a stabilizing majority of bookings. Bull CaseUpside scenario $368.0024% Grand Theft Auto VI launches on November 19, 2026 as scheduled, achieves strong acceptance at its announced $79.99 standard-edition price, stimulates engagement across the broader Grand Theft Auto ecosystem, and combines with NBA 2K27 and recurrent spending to meet or exceed the top of FY2027 guidance. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |