Taboola.com Ltd Dossier
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SectorCommunication Services IndustryInternet Content & Information Beta (adjusted)1.34 Intrinsic Value $36.46median of 6 methods · middle span $5-$31based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $3.32Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 998% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+998%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $896.9M Enterprise Value $835.9M Shares Outstanding 252.1M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Taboola is successfully transitioning from a legacy content recommendation widget provider to an AI-driven performance advertising powerhouse via its proprietary Realize platform. The company's strong financial turnaround in late 2025 and early 2026, characterized by robust free cash flow generation and a return to GAAP profitability, is further amplified by an aggressive share repurchase program that has retired over 36% of outstanding shares. Despite structural challenges from walled gardens and shifting open-web traffic, Taboola's deep publisher integrations (e.g., Yahoo, NBC News) and expansion into conversational AI and OEM partnerships provide a highly defensive moat and a clear path to sustained double-digit growth. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$3.75 Mean target$5.46 High · most bullish analyst$7.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $3.7510% Macroeconomic headwinds depress digital ad spend, and traffic acquisition costs (TAC) rise due to intense competition from independent SSPs and walled gardens. Key publisher contracts face renewal pressure or unfavorable terms, squeezing margins and slowing the buyback program. Base CaseCentral scenario $5.4660% Matches the consensus meanTaboola achieves its raised FY 2026 guidance, supported by steady progress in the Realize platform and stable publisher relationships. The company maintains positive GAAP net income and continues its capital return program, leading to a gradual upward re-rating of its multiple toward historical averages. Bull CaseUpside scenario $7.0030% The Realize platform scales faster than anticipated, driving higher advertiser ROI and attracting premium budgets. Strategic partnerships with OEMs and conversational AI engines accelerate, leading to market share gains. Aggressive buybacks continue to shrink the share count, driving outsized EPS growth. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |