T Stamp Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

T Stamp Inc

IDAINASDAQ

SectorInformation Technology

IndustryApplication Software

Beta (adjusted)0.66

Intrinsic Value $2.23median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $2.99Price as of 1 Oct 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 25% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $16.9M

Enterprise Value $11.7M

Shares Outstanding 6.1M diluted

Next Earnings Date14 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

T Stamp Inc. (dba Trust Stamp) is a micro-cap provider of AI-powered identity services that is successfully transitioning toward commercial scale. Despite historical net losses and ongoing going-concern risks, the company has demonstrated strong underlying operational momentum, highlighted by a 39% year-over-year increase in Q1 2026 net recognized revenue to $757k. This growth is anchored by a key contract amendment with an S&P 500 bank that guarantees a minimum of $12.7 million in gross revenue through May 31, 2031. Furthermore, the company's strategic integration with FIS has successfully onboarded 100 financial institutions, driving a 247% increase in transaction starts. While near-term dilution and execution risks remain high, the company's expanding pipeline, strategic M&A (such as Lexverify), and innovative product offerings (like the Stablecoin-focused Wallet of Wallets) position it as a high-upside play in the biometric security and decentralized identity space.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets1 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$8.00

Mean target$8.00

High · most bullish analyst$8.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$1.5020%

Further implementation delays for major contracts, coupled with a faster-than-expected cash burn rate. The company is forced to execute highly dilutive equity raises at depressed valuations to sustain operations, while competitive pressures from larger identity verification players limit new customer acquisition.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$8.0055%

Matches the consensus mean

Steady execution of the S&P 500 bank contract and gradual onboarding of new financial institutions. Revenue grows in line with consensus expectations (projected at $5.04 million for FY 2026), while operating losses continue to narrow. The company utilizes existing shelf registrations and warrant exercises to manage liquidity.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$12.0025%

Rapid commercialization of the Wallet of Wallets (WoW) product combined with accelerated onboarding of the remaining pipeline of 114 Orchestration Layer customers. Under this scenario, transaction volumes via FIS scale exponentially, driving the company to operating profitability ahead of schedule and eliminating going-concern risks.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong top-line growth with Q1 2026 net recognized revenue up 39% year-over-year.
Long-term revenue visibility provided by the S&P 500 bank contract amendment, guaranteeing over $12.7 million through 2031.
Significant distribution scale achieved through the FIS partnership, onboarding 100 institutions with over $350 billion in assets.
Expansion of intellectual property and capabilities through strategic acquisitions like Lexverify (large language models) and CyberFish.

Key Investment Risks

Persistent net losses ($8.33 million in FY 2025) and explicit going-concern warnings in regulatory filings.
High customer concentration, making revenue highly sensitive to implementation timelines and contract terms of a few key clients.
Potential for substantial shareholder dilution from outstanding private placement warrants and resale shelf registrations.
Intense competition from larger, better-capitalized players in the identity verification and biometric security sectors.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Cancellation or material negative modification of the S&P 500 bank contract.
Inability to secure additional financing or execute warrant inducements, leading to a critical liquidity shortfall.
A prolonged halt in new customer implementations or a decline in transaction starts via the FIS platform.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Quality Pillars Members

This section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown.

Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.