T Rowe Price Group Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryAsset Management & Custody Banks Beta (adjusted)1.30 Intrinsic Value $104.79median of 6 methods · middle span $89-$116based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $105.83Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 1% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $22.6B Shares Outstanding 214.7M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date30 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend15 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary T. Rowe Price retains substantial scale, with $1.867 trillion of assets under management at July 31, 2026, a large retirement franchise, and a continuing $1.30 quarterly dividend. Strategic initiatives in fixed-income ETFs, separately managed accounts, and responsible AI adoption could improve competitive positioning. The counterweight is persistent flow pressure: second-quarter net outflows were $6.5 billion and July alone recorded $8.2 billion of outflows. The balanced evidence supports a Hold pending sustained flow stabilization and execution of the F/m transaction. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$90.00 Mean target$109.92 High · most bullish analyst$124.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $90.0027% The downside case combines continued outflows with adverse markets, potentially reducing AUM below the $1.776 trillion December 2025 baseline. Delayed or unsuccessful F/m completion and weak realization of AI or distribution initiatives would further reduce the strategic offset to organic pressure. Base CaseCentral scenario $109.9254% Matches the consensus meanThe modal case assumes AUM remains substantial but volatile, outflows continue intermittently, the dividend remains supported, and the F/m acquisition proceeds broadly as announced. Strategic expansion partially offsets pressure on the legacy active-management franchise. Bull CaseUpside scenario $124.0019% The upside case assumes monthly flows recover materially from July's outflow level, supportive markets preserve or expand AUM, the F/m acquisition closes and successfully broadens fixed-income ETFs and SMAs, and AI investments improve investment and distribution capabilities. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |