T-Mobile US, Inc. Dossier
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SectorCommunication Services IndustryWireless Telecommunication Services Beta (adjusted)0.55 Intrinsic Value $296.12median of 6 methods · middle span $181-$1,171based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $161.73Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 83% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+83%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $173.5B Enterprise Value $257.9B Shares Outstanding 1.1B diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date22 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend28 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary T-Mobile continues to demonstrate customer and network differentiation, with 277,000 postpaid net account additions, 0.99% postpaid account churn and a record wireless NPS of 46 in the second quarter of 2026. Management maintained its 950,000-1.05 million full-year postpaid-account-addition outlook and has longer-term broadband and digital-transformation opportunities. However, second-quarter additions declined 13% year over year, execution remains exposed to integration, restructuring, competition and technology risks, and the official August 28 share quote of $180.94 provides only modest upside to the internally assessed base case. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$169.00 Mean target$243.38 High · most bullish analyst$300.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $169.0018% A bear outcome assumes postpaid additions fall below guidance, churn deteriorates and integration, restructuring or competitive pressures weaken the customer proposition. Failure to translate network leadership and broadband expansion into durable customer growth would warrant a substantially lower market assessment. Base CaseCentral scenario $243.3858% Matches the consensus meanThe base case assumes continued but moderating customer growth, full-year postpaid additions within the 950,000-1.05 million guidance range and broadly stable retention. Bull CaseUpside scenario $300.0024% A bull outcome assumes T-Mobile sustains its network and customer-experience lead, achieves or exceeds the upper end of 2026 postpaid account guidance and makes credible progress toward its 2030 target of 18-19 million total broadband customers. Successful digitalization, AI deployment and integration execution would support a materially stronger market assessment. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |