Sysco Corp Dossier
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SectorConsumer Staples IndustryFood Distributors Beta (adjusted)0.76 Intrinsic Value $77.93median of 6 methods · middle span $72-$124based on filings through 27 Jun 2026 Market Price $77.77Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 0% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $37.3B Enterprise Value $47.8B Shares Outstanding 480.6M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend2 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Sysco enters FY27 with improving case growth, a 9%-11% adjusted-EPS growth outlook, and an expected $100 million of efficiency benefits. The proposed $29.1 billion Jetro Restaurant Depot acquisition could add a resilient cash-and-carry channel, meaningful earnings accretion, and approximately $250 million of annualized net cost synergies. Those merits are balanced by regulatory and integration uncertainty, substantial acquisition financing, and the need to demonstrate that volume growth converts into stronger U.S. Foodservice profit growth. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$78.00 Mean target$89.31 High · most bullish analyst$100.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $78.0023% Regulatory review delays or prevents the Jetro acquisition, or closing is followed by weaker-than-planned synergies, integration disruption, and slower deleveraging. At the same time, softer restaurant demand or margin pressure causes FY27 adjusted-EPS growth to fall below guidance, reducing confidence in both the standalone transformation and transaction economics. Base CaseCentral scenario $89.3157% Matches the consensus meanStandalone operations produce FY27 sales and adjusted-EPS growth within management's 6%-7% and 9%-11% ranges, respectively, while the Jetro transaction progresses through regulatory review and closes by fiscal Q3 2027. Integration and deleveraging broadly follow management's plan, but investors require evidence of synergy realization before assigning full credit. Bull CaseUpside scenario $100.0020% The Jetro transaction closes within the stated timetable, first- and second-year accretion meets management's expectations, and procurement and inbound-logistics initiatives deliver approximately $250 million of annualized net cost synergies within three years. Concurrently, Sysco achieves the upper end of FY27 adjusted-EPS guidance as local-volume momentum and the AI-enabled efficiency program improve profitability. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |