Syndax Pharmaceuticals Inc Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryBiotechnology Beta (adjusted)0.57 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $18.22Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $1.6B Enterprise Value $1.6B Shares Outstanding 89M diluted Next Earnings Date2 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Syndax Pharmaceuticals has successfully transitioned into a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company following the FDA approvals of Revuforj (revumenib) and Niktimvo (axatilimab). The company's Q1 2026 financial results demonstrate robust commercial execution, with combined net sales exceeding $100 million (including partner Incyte's reported sales). Revuforj is establishing itself as a leading menin inhibitor in genetically defined acute leukemias, while Niktimvo shows strong launch momentum in chronic graft-versus-host disease (cGVHD). Backed by a solid cash position of $352.1 million as of March 31, 2026, and a stable operating expense base, Syndax is well-positioned to achieve profitability as its commercial products scale and late-stage pipeline programs advance. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$26.00 Mean target$37.91 High · most bullish analyst$57.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $29.00 Commercial uptake of Revuforj is slowed by safety concerns, such as QTc prolongation and differentiation syndrome, or intense competition from Kura Oncology's ziftomenib (Komzifti). Additionally, if the Phase 2 MAXPIRe trial of axatilimab in IPF fails to meet its endpoints, or if frontline AML trials face enrollment delays, the path to profitability will be extended, potentially requiring dilutive financing. Base CaseCentral scenario $37.91 Matches the consensus meanSteady commercial execution of Revuforj and Niktimvo in their approved indications drives consistent double-digit quarter-over-quarter revenue growth. Operating expenses remain stable around the guided $400 million for FY 2026 (excluding stock-based compensation), allowing the company to leverage its commercial infrastructure and progress toward profitability by 2027. Pipeline trials advance on schedule. Bull CaseUpside scenario $57.00 Rapid market adoption of Revuforj in NPM1-mutated AML and KMT2Ar acute leukemia, combined with successful label expansion into frontline settings, drives revenue growth well ahead of consensus. Niktimvo captures dominant share in the 3L+ cGVHD market and successfully expands into idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) following positive Phase 2 MAXPIRe data in late 2026, accelerating the timeline to profitability. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |