Synaptics Inc Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustrySemiconductors Beta (adjusted)1.63 Intrinsic Value $87.71median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 27 Jun 2026 Market Price $106.15Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 17% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $4.2B Enterprise Value $4.6B Shares Outstanding 38.9M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Synaptics is successfully transitioning from a legacy PC and mobile touch controller supplier into a high-margin, high-growth Edge AI and Core IoT powerhouse. Led by its next-generation Astra AI-native embedded compute platform, the company is capturing significant design wins in robotics, physical AI, and wearables. Despite near-term headwinds in mobile touch due to Chinese memory constraints, Synaptics' robust non-GAAP gross margins (exceeding 53%) and aggressive deleveraging profile support a highly asymmetric risk-reward profile as the Astra platform begins its commercial ramp in 2027. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$105.00 Mean target$130.33 High · most bullish analyst$170.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $105.00 Severe and prolonged memory supply constraints in China continue to depress the Mobile Touch segment. The commercial ramp of the Astra platform is delayed into late 2027 or faces intense pricing competition from larger semiconductor players. Near-term headwinds in the PC market materialize in the second half of 2026, compressing operating margins and slowing the company's deleveraging path. Base CaseCentral scenario $130.33 Matches the consensus meanCore IoT remains the primary growth engine, expanding by over 40% in FY2026 to exceed $385 million. Astra microcontrollers sample successfully in Fall 2026, setting up a steady commercial revenue ramp in Calendar Year 2027. Mobile touch remains soft but is offset by steady enterprise and automotive demand, keeping overall revenue growth in the low double digits with stable 53.5% non-GAAP gross margins. Bull CaseUpside scenario $170.00 Accelerated adoption of the Astra SR series SoC in high-volume wearables and robotics leads to a faster-than-expected revenue ramp in early 2027. Core IoT continues to grow at a >40% CAGR, while mobile touch pressures ease as memory supply constraints resolve. Operating leverage drives non-GAAP gross margins above 55%, leading to significant EPS expansion. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |