Symbotic Inc Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryIndustrial Machinery Beta (adjusted)1.64 Intrinsic Value $17.08median of 6 methods · middle span $1-$80based on filings through 27 Jun 2026 Market Price $43.17Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 60% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (-60%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $26.1B Shares Outstanding 605.4M diluted Next Earnings Date16 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Symbotic entered the final quarter of fiscal 2026 with strong operating momentum: fiscal Q3 revenue was USD 720.838 million, adjusted EBITDA was USD 95.237 million and 77 systems were in deployment. Management guided fiscal Q4 revenue to USD 760-780 million and adjusted EBITDA to USD 100-105 million. Longer-term optionality includes Walmart's performance-contingent commitment to purchase and deploy 400 accelerated pickup and delivery systems, an agreement that Symbotic said could add more than USD 5 billion to future backlog. These strengths are balanced by deployment and customer-concentration risk and by the need to demonstrate durable control discipline following the fiscal 2024 revenue-recognition restatement and identified material weaknesses. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$42.00 Mean target$64.32 High · most bullish analyst$85.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $42.0022% Fiscal Q4 revenue or adjusted EBITDA falls below the lower guidance bound, deployment growth stalls, or performance and execution issues delay the Walmart APD program. A renewed material weakness or revenue-recognition issue would further reduce confidence in reported operating progress. Base CaseCentral scenario $64.3258% Matches the consensus meanFiscal Q4 results remain within management's USD 760-780 million revenue and USD 100-105 million adjusted-EBITDA guidance ranges, while systems in deployment increase gradually. The APD opportunity develops over multiple years rather than contributing immediately. Bull CaseUpside scenario $85.0020% Symbotic exceeds the upper ends of fiscal Q4 guidance, expands deployments beyond 77 systems and satisfies the performance criteria supporting Walmart's multi-year APD commitment. This would strengthen evidence that scale, recurring services and the new micro-fulfillment product category can sustain profitable growth. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |