Sylvamo Corp Dossier
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SectorMaterials IndustryPaper & Paper Products Beta (adjusted)0.84 Intrinsic Value $39.14median of 6 methods · middle span $18-$44based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $33.17Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 18% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.3B Enterprise Value $2B Shares Outstanding 39.1M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date6 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend7 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Sylvamo Corp is navigating a critical transition year in 2026, characterized by short-term capacity constraints, elevated capital expenditures, and footprint optimization costs. While the company's long-term targets of generating over $300 million in annual free cash flow and achieving a 15%+ ROIC remain highly attractive, near-term performance is heavily pressured by the termination of the Riverdale supply agreement and extensive planned maintenance outages at the Eastover mill. A Hold recommendation is warranted as the market awaits execution proof of its high-return strategic investments and the realization of its lean transformation benefits in late 2026 and 2027. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$45.00 Mean target$51.25 High · most bullish analyst$65.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The bear case reflects prolonged operational reliability issues in Europe and Latin America, cost overruns on the Eastover modernization, or a sharper-than-expected secular decline in global paper demand. Margin compression persists, delaying the achievement of the $300 million free cash flow target beyond the 3-5 year window. Base CaseCentral scenario The base case assumes Sylvamo successfully completes its Eastover mill optimization and woodyard modernization on schedule, with softwood operations starting up in Q1 2027. Footprint transition costs are contained near the guided $65 million, aided by favorable tariff-driven shifts to Brazilian imports. Free cash flow recovers strongly in the second half of 2026, paving the way for a step-change in earnings power by 2027. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |