Suzano SA ADR Dossier
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SectorMaterials IndustryPaper & Paper Products Beta (adjusted)0.35 Intrinsic Value $10.10median of 4 methods · middle span $2-$18based on filings through 31 Dec 2025 Market Price $8.30Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 22% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $10.2B Shares Outstanding 1.2B diluted Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend4 May 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Suzano's ADR traded at $8.82 on August 31, 2026, versus a base-case value of $12.60 derived from the issuer-published R$65.13 local-share analyst consensus and Suzano's R$5.17/US$ 2026 exchange-rate assumption. The investment case combines global pulp scale, positive operating cash generation and potential diversification from Arbex. These merits are balanced by cyclical pulp pricing, a Q2 cash cost above full-year guidance, and leverage of 3.4x versus management's objective of below 2.5x during 2027-2028. The resulting approximately 43% base-case appreciation supports a Buy rather than Strong Buy because deleveraging and Arbex integration remain material execution tests. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$10.00 Mean target$12.57 High · most bullish analyst$13.84 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $6.5024% Sustained pulp-price weakness, oil and input-cost pressure, or Arbex integration demands keep cash cost elevated and prevent leverage from declining. The $6.50 stress target applies a material discount to the current ADR price and to the translated analyst range to reflect simultaneous cyclical and execution pressure. Base CaseCentral scenario $12.5758% Matches the consensus meanPulp and paper volumes remain resilient, operating cash generation stays positive, and Arbex begins contributing without disrupting the deleveraging plan. The $12.60 target is the issuer-published R$65.13 local-share analyst mean translated using Suzano's R$5.17/US$ 2026 exchange-rate assumption. Bull CaseUpside scenario $14.5118% A stronger pulp-price cycle, sustained high shipment volumes, cash cost convergence toward FY2026 guidance and successful Arbex integration accelerate deleveraging. The target corresponds approximately to the issuer-published R$75 high analyst target translated at Suzano's R$5.17/US$ 2026 exchange-rate assumption. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |