Surgery Partners Inc Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryMedical Care Facilities Beta (adjusted)1.62 Intrinsic Value $38.10median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $13.23Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 188% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+188%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.7B Enterprise Value $5.3B Shares Outstanding 129M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date10 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Surgery Partners, Inc. (SGRY) is well-positioned to benefit from the structural, long-term migration of high-acuity surgical procedures (such as orthopedics, total joint replacements, and cardiology) from traditional hospital settings to lower-cost, high-quality outpatient ambulatory surgery centers (ASCs). Despite recent headwinds in late 2025 related to unfavorable payer mix, anesthesia cost inflation, and regulatory pressures, the company's Q1 2026 results demonstrated operational resilience with a solid beat on EPS and reaffirmed full-year guidance. Trading at a historical discount, SGRY offers an attractive entry point for investors seeking exposure to secular healthcare trends, supported by a disciplined capital allocation strategy that includes a $200 million share repurchase program and targeted, high-return M&A. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$14.00 Mean target$18.73 High · most bullish analyst$24.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $14.00 Persistent anesthesia cost inflation and provider tax headwinds compress margins further. Slower-than-expected recovery in commercial payer mix or deeper Medicaid reimbursement cuts drag on profitability. High debt service costs on the company's $3.7B debt load limit free cash flow generation and restrict strategic flexibility. Base CaseCentral scenario $18.73 Matches the consensus meanSurgery Partners achieves its reaffirmed 2026 guidance of $3.35B to $3.45B in revenue and at least $530M in Adjusted EBITDA. Same-facility case volumes and revenue per case grow at a moderate single-digit pace. The company successfully manages anesthesia cost headwinds and maintains its leverage ratio at or below 4.3x net debt to EBITDA. Bull CaseUpside scenario $24.00 Accelerated migration of orthopedic and cardiovascular procedures drives double-digit organic EBITDA growth. Successful integration of newly acquired ASCs and strategic health system partnerships (e.g., Intermountain, OhioHealth) yield significant synergies. Deleveraging occurs faster than expected, driving multiple expansion toward historical averages. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |