Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc

SUPNNASDAQ

SectorHealth Care

IndustryDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

Beta (adjusted)0.70

Intrinsic Value $35.21median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $42.18Price as of 1 Oct 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 17% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $2.5B

Enterprise Value $2.3B

Shares Outstanding 57.6M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Supernus Pharmaceuticals is successfully transitioning from its legacy, patent-expired epilepsy franchise (Trokendi XR and Oxtellar XR) to a high-growth, diversified central nervous system (CNS) portfolio. Growth is primarily driven by the non-stimulant ADHD treatment Qelbree, alongside newly launched assets like ONAPGO for advanced Parkinson's disease and collaboration revenues from ZURZUVAE for postpartum depression. Despite near-term GAAP losses and supply-chain bottlenecks for ONAPGO, the company's robust balance sheet with approximately $384 million in cash and zero debt provides substantial flexibility to fund its pipeline (such as SPN-820 and SPN-817) and pursue strategic acquisitions.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets4 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$55.00

Mean target$61.75

High · most bullish analyst$67.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$55.0020%

ONAPGO's second-supplier approval is delayed by the FDA beyond mid-2027, prolonging supply constraints and causing prescribers to abandon the therapy. Qelbree sales growth slows due to intensifying competition in the ADHD market. SPN-820 Phase 2b trial fails to meet its primary endpoints, forcing a write-down of the asset and limiting pipeline expansion. Increased SG&A and R&D expenses continue to depress GAAP operating margins.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$61.7550%

Matches the consensus mean

Supernus delivers on its reiterated FY 2026 guidance of $840 million to $870 million in total revenues, supported by steady Qelbree volume growth and stable contributions from GOCOVRI and ZURZUVAE. ONAPGO's second-supplier regulatory submission is filed in Q3 2026 with approval by mid-2027. Legacy product erosion continues at a predictable pace, and the company maintains a strong net cash position while advancing its Phase 2b pipeline assets.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$66.0030%

Qelbree achieves rapid market penetration in the adult and pediatric ADHD segments, exceeding $450 million in FY 2026 net sales. ONAPGO's second-supplier FDA approval is accelerated to early 2027, resolving supply constraints and unlocking a massive backlog of patients. ZURZUVAE collaboration revenues scale faster than expected under Biogen's commercialization efforts. SPN-820 Phase 2b trial yields highly positive results, positioning Supernus as a leader in novel depression therapies.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong commercial momentum with growth products (Qelbree, GOCOVRI, ZURZUVAE, ONAPGO) up 56% year-over-year in Q1 2026.
Excellent balance sheet strength with $384.2 million in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities, and zero debt as of March 31, 2026.
Diversified CNS portfolio targeting high-unmet-need indications including ADHD, Parkinson's disease, and postpartum depression.

Key Investment Risks

Supply chain vulnerabilities and single-source supplier risks for ONAPGO, causing patient backlogs.
High clinical development risk associated with late-stage pipeline candidates like SPN-820 and SPN-817.
Accelerated generic erosion of legacy products Trokendi XR and Oxtellar XR.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Failure to submit the second-supplier FDA application for ONAPGO in Q3 2026.
A significant downward revision of FY 2026 revenue guidance below the $840 million threshold.
Negative clinical data or safety signals in the SPN-820 Phase 2b trial.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.