Super Micro Computer Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Super Micro Computer Inc

SMCINASDAQ

SectorInformation Technology

IndustryComputer Hardware

Beta (adjusted)1.66

Intrinsic Value $75.84median of 5 methods · middle span $73-$88based on filings through 31 Mar 2026

Market Price $41.92Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 81% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (+81%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $27.5B

Enterprise Value $28.8B

Shares Outstanding 697.3M diluted

Moat Rating Narrow

Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Supermicro enters FY2027 with rapid AI-infrastructure demand, more than $60 billion of new orders reported during FY2026, record backlog, sharply improved Q4 profitability, and company net-sales guidance of $65-$72 billion. These positives are balanced by preliminary unaudited FY2026 results, substantial equity and equity-linked financing, non-firm order risk, and an unresolved independent investigation concerning alleged export-control violations by former associated individuals.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets16 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$15.00

Mean target$42.38

High · most bullish analyst$60.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$15.0027%

Order delays or cancellations, performance below guidance, dilution, or an adverse investigation development could return the shares toward the June 2026 common-stock offering price.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$42.3855%

Matches the consensus mean

The company delivers within its FY2027 sales range but the shares remain constrained by financing dilution, preliminary financial reporting, and the unresolved independent investigation.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$60.0018%

Execution near the upper end of FY2027 guidance, sustained Q4-level gross margin, and conversion of record backlog could support a return to the official 52-week-high reference price.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

FY2026 net sales reached $39.1 billion versus $22.0 billion in FY2025, while management guided FY2027 net sales to $65-$72 billion.
Q4 FY2026 GAAP gross margin improved to 17.5%, and management reported more than $60 billion of new orders and record backlog entering FY2027.

Key Investment Risks

The August 2026 financial results were preliminary and unaudited; the company stated that final results could differ and that the independent review could affect forecasts and prior-period results.
The independent directors' export-control investigation had no definitive completion timetable, although the company was not named as a defendant and said the three indicted individuals no longer had a relationship with it.
The June 2026 financing included common shares, mandatory convertible preferred securities, and a potential at-the-market program; the associated approximately $39 billion of AI orders were described as non-firm and subject to cancellation or delay.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.