Super Hi International Holding LTD ADR Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryRestaurants Beta (adjusted)0.70 Intrinsic Value $18.93median of 6 methods · middle span $17-$60based on filings through 31 Dec 2024 Market Price $10.68Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 77% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+77%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $628.5M Enterprise Value $373.8M Shares Outstanding 58.8M diluted Next Earnings Date24 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Super Hi International Holding Ltd. (HDL) is a premier operator of Haidilao hot pot restaurants in international markets outside of Greater China. Following a transitional year in 2025 focused on customer experience investments and strategic network optimization, the company has demonstrated a strong operational rebound in Q1 2026. Revenue grew 14.2% year-over-year to US$225.9 million, and the operating margin recovered to 6.2% (up 2.1 percentage points). While net profit was temporarily impacted by non-cash foreign exchange translation losses, the underlying restaurant operations remain highly robust, driven by a strong table turnover rate of 4.0x per day and steady international brand equity. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$14.50 Mean target$17.93 High · most bullish analyst$21.30 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Persistent inflationary pressures on labor and food ingredients squeeze operating margins below 4.0%. Severe foreign exchange volatility in emerging markets continues to drag down net profit, and geopolitical tensions in key regions slow down new store openings. Base CaseCentral scenario The company successfully executes its 'Dual Focus on Employees and Customers' strategy, driving steady same-store sales growth and maintaining a table turnover rate of ~4.0x. Operating margins stabilize in the 6.0% to 7.0% range as near-term expansion costs and customer experience investments normalize. The stock trades toward its consensus target price. Bull CaseUpside scenario The bull case for Super Hi International centers on its aggressive global expansion strategy of the Haidilao hot pot brand outside of China, supported by strong brand equity and operational flexibility. Growth is driven by continuous store rollouts, menu innovation, and the expansion of secondary brands under the 'Red Pomegranate' project. Additionally, enhancements in supply chain management and central kitchen operations are expected to drive positive operating leverage and expand operating margins. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |