Super Group (SGHC) Limited Dossier - Source-backed chat

Super Group (SGHC) Limited

SGHCNYSE

SectorConsumer Discretionary

IndustryGambling

Beta (adjusted)1.04

Intrinsic Value $122.81median of 5 methods · middle span $73-$123based on filings through 30 Jun 2025

Market Price $11.35Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 982% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (+982%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $5.8B

Enterprise Value $5.4B

Shares Outstanding 504.9M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend16 Mar 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Super Group (SGHC) Limited presents a compelling, highly profitable growth story in the global online gaming and sports betting sector, trading at a significant discount to its intrinsic value. Following its strategic exit from the low-margin U.S. sports betting market, the company has successfully pivoted to focus on high-margin iGaming and high-growth international markets, particularly in Africa. The company's Q1 2026 results demonstrated powerful operating leverage, with revenue rising 18% to $612 million and Adjusted EBITDA surging 36% to $152 million (a 25% margin). Backed by a debt-free balance sheet, robust free cash flow conversion of ~75%, and a newly raised quarterly dividend target of $0.05 per share, Super Group is well-positioned to capture structural tailwinds from the upcoming FIFA World Cup. While regulatory overhangs in South Africa and short-seller allegations present near-term volatility, the underlying fundamentals and regional momentum support a strong bullish outlook.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets8 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$18.00

Mean target$19.50

High · most bullish analyst$22.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$18.00

The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) probe into Betway's historical exchange control transactions results in substantial fines and restricts offshore software licensing payments, severely impacting cash repatriation from the highly profitable African segment. Concurrently, Spruce Point's allegations regarding a minority interest omission in Raging River are validated, forcing a downward adjustment of consolidated EBITDA and damaging investor confidence.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$19.50

Matches the consensus mean

Super Group successfully executes on its reaffirmed FY2026 guidance of at least $2.55 billion in revenue and over $680 million in Adjusted EBITDA. The company maintains its quarterly dividend of $0.05 per share, supported by stable iGaming cash flows from the Spin segment and steady expansion in Canada (Alberta/Ontario) and Africa. Near-term regulatory investigations are managed without material financial damage.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$22.00

Accelerated monetization in Africa (which grew 33% YoY in Q1 2026) combined with a highly successful FIFA World Cup cross-sell to casino products drives full-year 2026 results well above guidance. The integration of the Apricot sportsbook IP delivers higher-than-expected cost efficiencies, pushing Adjusted EBITDA margins toward 28%. Institutional inflows (such as Norges Bank's stake) continue, leading to a valuation re-rating closer to peers.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong regional growth engine, particularly in Africa where Q1 2026 revenue surged 33% YoY to $267 million, representing 44% of reportable segment revenue.
Robust balance sheet with $422 million in cash as of March 31, 2026, zero debt, and high free cash flow conversion (~75%).
Strategic pivot away from unprofitable U.S. sports betting markets to focus on high-margin iGaming and core international jurisdictions.
Full ownership and control of ex-Africa sportsbook technology stack following the successful closure of the Apricot IP acquisition in February 2026.

Key Investment Risks

Regulatory and compliance risks, highlighted by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) investigation into historical exchange control transactions.
Short-seller allegations from Spruce Point Capital Management claiming potential overstatement of consolidated EBITDA due to an unrecorded minority interest in Raging River.
Geographic concentration, with South Africa representing a substantial portion of the group's highly profitable African segment.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A formal ruling by the SARB that permanently restricts or heavily taxes cross-border licensing payments from South Africa to offshore entities.
A material restatement of historical financial statements validating Spruce Point's allegations of minority interest omissions.
A significant deceleration in Monthly Active Customers (MAC) or a failure to meet the minimum FY2026 revenue guidance of $2.55 billion.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.