Sunrun Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Sunrun Inc

RUNNASDAQ

SectorInformation Technology

IndustrySolar

Beta (adjusted)1.92

Intrinsic Value $17.56median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $7.64Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 130% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (+130%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $1.8B

Enterprise Value $15.8B

Shares Outstanding 238.5M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Sunrun Inc. continues to demonstrate strong operational execution, highlighted by a record 73% storage attachment rate and a significant Q1 2026 earnings beat with EPS of $0.62. However, the company faces persistent headwinds in the residential solar sector, including elevated capital costs and lumpy cash generation. While its subscription model and vertical integration provide competitive advantages, the stock remains pressured by macroeconomic factors and high interest expenses, justifying a Hold rating.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets19 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$10.50

Mean target$16.39

High · most bullish analyst$30.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$10.50

Persistent high interest rates continue to pressure capital-intensive solar models, increasing project-level capital costs. Delays in project finance transactions or regulatory changes to clean energy tax credits further strain cash generation, leading to a failure to meet full-year targets.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$16.39

Matches the consensus mean

Sunrun maintains its market leadership in residential solar and storage, achieving its full-year 2026 cash generation guidance of $250 million to $450 million. Storage attachment rates stabilize above 70%, offsetting lower solar installation volumes, while interest rates remain elevated but stable.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$30.00

Accelerated adoption of home battery storage and higher storage attachment rates drive margin expansion. Successful execution of the distributed power plant strategy and grid service dispatches unlock recurring high-margin revenue streams, while rapid parent debt reduction improves the balance sheet risk profile.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

America's largest provider of residential battery storage and home-to-grid power plants with over 1.1 million customers.
Record storage attachment rate of 73% in Q1 2026, driving higher subscriber values and margin improvements.
Strong capital markets execution, including a $584 million securitization and extended warehouse facilities.

Key Investment Risks

Capital-intensive business model highly sensitive to elevated interest rates and capital costs.
Lumpy cash generation, as evidenced by negative $59 million in Q1 2026 due to project finance timing shifts.
High consolidated debt load of approximately $14.8 billion, primarily consisting of non-recourse project debt.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Failure to achieve the full-year 2026 cash generation guidance of $250 million to $450 million.
A significant drop in the storage attachment rate below 65%.
Adverse regulatory changes or rollbacks of clean energy tax credits under the Inflation Reduction Act.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.