Sunrise Realty Trust Inc Dossier
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SectorReal Estate IndustryMortgage REITs Beta (adjusted)1.09 Intrinsic Value $8.92median of 1 methodbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $6.28Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 42% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $84.9M Enterprise Value $226.8M Shares Outstanding 13.9M diluted Next Earnings Date12 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend30 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Sunrise Realty Trust, Inc. (NASDAQ: SUNS) represents a compelling, newly-established commercial mortgage REIT focused on originating senior secured, floating-rate loans for transitional real estate in the high-growth Southern United States. Unlike legacy peers burdened by pre-rate-hike problem loans, SUNS operates with a clean, post-rate-hike portfolio yielding an attractive 12.4% to maturity. With distributable earnings of $0.35 per share comfortably covering its $0.30 quarterly dividend (representing a ~14% annualized yield) and trading at a significant discount to its book value of $13.00 per share, SUNS offers an exceptional risk-adjusted return profile for income-focused investors. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$8.00 Mean target$11.13 High · most bullish analyst$13.50 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $8.0020% Broader macroeconomic deterioration in the Southern U.S. real estate market leads to sponsor defaults, increasing non-performing loans and forcing higher CECL provisions. Delayed liquidation of the San Antonio REO asset drags on earnings, forcing a dividend cut and keeping the stock depressed at a deep discount to book value. Base CaseCentral scenario $10.3350% SUNS maintains its disciplined underwriting standards, keeping the loan portfolio fully performing while successfully covering its stable $0.30 quarterly dividend. The Thompson San Antonio hotel is sold near carrying value, and the stock steadily re-rates closer to its book value as the market gains confidence in its new-vintage portfolio. Bull CaseUpside scenario $12.0030% Rapid deployment of expanded credit facility capacity into mid-teens yielding senior loans, combined with a highly profitable, above-carrying-value sale of the Thompson San Antonio hotel. This drives distributable earnings above $0.40 per share, prompting a dividend hike and narrowing the stock's discount to book value toward its historical high. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |