Sun Life Financial Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryLife & Health Insurance Beta (adjusted)0.92 Intrinsic Value $36.63median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 31 Dec 2025 Market Price $77.67Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 53% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (-53%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $43.2B Shares Outstanding 563M diluted Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend26 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Sun Life entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum: Q2 underlying net income was CAD1.123 billion, diluted underlying EPS was CAD2.02, underlying ROE was 19.1%, the LICAT ratio was 145%, and assets under management reached CAD1.696 trillion. These results compare favorably with the company's 20% medium-term underlying-ROE objective and 10% underlying-EPS-growth objective. However, the TSX shares were already trading at CAD109.6 on August 31, 2026. The resulting Hold view reflects solid fundamentals and dividend support but only moderate risk-adjusted appreciation under the researcher's unanchored base scenario. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$64.20 Mean target$64.20 High · most bullish analyst$64.20 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $64.2017% CAD90 per TSX share. Underlying ROE falls below 17%, the LICAT ratio approaches the researcher's 130% monitoring threshold, market or flow weakness reduces AUM below CAD1.5 trillion, or the quarterly common dividend is reduced from CAD0.96. Those developments would weaken the capital-return and earnings-quality case. Base CaseCentral scenario $64.2058% Matches the consensus meanCAD116 per TSX share. Underlying ROE remains near the Q2 2026 level and moves gradually toward the 20% objective, capital remains sound, AUM stays resilient, and the CAD0.96 quarterly dividend is maintained. Bull CaseUpside scenario $64.2025% CAD130 per TSX share. Sun Life reaches or exceeds its 20% medium-term underlying-ROE objective, sustains underlying EPS momentum around or above its 10% objective, keeps the LICAT ratio near or above 140%, and preserves asset-management and wealth momentum around the Q2 2026 AUM base. Strong capital generation supports continuing dividends and repurchases. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |