Sun Communities Inc Dossier
|
SectorReal Estate IndustryREIT - Residential Beta (adjusted)0.85 Intrinsic Value $130.06median of 1 methodbased on filings through 31 Mar 2026 Market Price $110.00Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 18% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $13.9B Enterprise Value $20.7B Shares Outstanding 120.6M diluted Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend30 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Sun Communities entered the second half of 2026 with strong manufactured-housing performance, high occupancy, raised same-property NOI guidance, and moderate leverage. The planned Park Holidays sale should simplify the company into a predominantly North American manufactured-housing and RV platform, but the transaction remained subject to regulatory approval in the latest primary-source disclosure. RV same-property NOI was weak in the second quarter, leverage had risen year over year. The resulting view is Hold pending transaction completion and further evidence that RV performance and leverage remain controlled. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$126.00 Mean target$139.42 High · most bullish analyst$155.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $126.0023% The Park Holidays sale is delayed or its expected benefits are reduced, RV same-property NOI remains weak, adjusted occupancy falls below 98%, or net debt to recurring EBITDA rises materially above the June 2026 level. Core FFO then falls below company guidance. Base CaseCentral scenario $139.4258% Matches the consensus meanThe UK transaction closes during the second half of 2026, North America same-property NOI finishes within the 4.5%-5.3% company range, and Core FFO remains within the $6.94-$7.10 range. Manufactured housing continues to offset softer RV results while leverage remains manageable. Bull CaseUpside scenario $155.0019% The Park Holidays sale closes on acceptable terms, proceeds strengthen liquidity, and the resulting North American focus improves operating consistency. Manufactured-housing NOI remains near the upper end of the 6.1%-6.9% full-year guidance range, RV performance improves, and Core FFO reaches the upper end of the $6.94-$7.10 range. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |