Summit Therapeutics Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Summit Therapeutics Inc

SMMTNASDAQ

SectorHealth Care

IndustryBiotechnology

Beta (adjusted)-0.50

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $16.69Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $13.3B

Enterprise Value $12.9B

Shares Outstanding 784.2M diluted

Next Earnings Date14 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Summit offers high-risk, catalyst-driven exposure to ivonescimab, a PD-1/VEGF bispecific with global Phase III HARMONi progression-free-survival evidence, an improving but not yet statistically characterized updated overall-survival trend, five positive Phase III readouts reported across NSCLC and biliary tract cancer, and a pending FDA decision. The official share-price page showed $13.70 on August 31, 2026. The risk-reward is favorable if FDA review and HARMONi-3 validate the molecule beyond its initial indication, but the thesis remains unusually sensitive to binary regulatory and clinical outcomes.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets13 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$9.83

Mean target$28.42

High · most bullish analyst$41.71

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$9.8325%

FDA issues a complete response letter or materially delays review, and/or HARMONi-3 fails to demonstrate progression-free-survival benefit against the pembrolizumab-containing standard. The original HARMONi overall-survival analysis did not reach statistical significance, leaving substantial downside if later evidence weakens.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$28.4245%

Matches the consensus mean

The base case assumes a constructive FDA outcome or manageable review delay, continued validation of HARMONi, and mixed-to-positive HARMONi-3 evidence, while retaining a substantial discount for commercialization and trial-execution uncertainty.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$41.7130%

FDA approval occurs on schedule, updated HARMONi survival data remain supportive, and HARMONi-3 demonstrates clear first-line squamous-NSCLC superiority over pembrolizumab plus chemotherapy. Continued positive readouts outside NSCLC support a multi-tumor platform valuation.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

HARMONi achieved median progression-free survival of 6.8 months versus 4.4 months and a hazard ratio of 0.52, providing randomized global Phase III evidence in a high-unmet-need EGFR-mutated NSCLC setting.
The June 2026 HARMONi update reported an overall-survival hazard ratio of 0.76 in both the global intention-to-treat population and western subgroup, improving confidence in geographic translatability.
By August 25, 2026, Summit reported five positive Phase III ivonescimab readouts, including the first positive readout beyond NSCLC, while China had granted a third approval for an ivonescimab-containing regimen.

Key Investment Risks

Ivonescimab remained investigational and unapproved throughout Summit's licensed territories as of the research date, making the November 2026 FDA decision a major binary event.
The primary HARMONi overall-survival analysis showed a favorable trend but did not achieve statistical significance; the later 0.76 hazard ratio was disclosed without the complete confidence intervals and detailed survival results scheduled for WCLC.
The valuation depends heavily on HARMONi-3 establishing differentiation against pembrolizumab plus chemotherapy in first-line NSCLC; a hazard ratio at or above 1.00 would materially weaken the expansion thesis.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.