Suja Life Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Suja Life Inc

SUJANASDAQ

SectorConsumer Staples

IndustryBeverages - Non-Alcoholic

Beta (adjusted)1.00

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $9.05Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $349.6M

Enterprise Value $490.9M

Shares Outstanding 38.6M diluted

Next Earnings Date10 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Suja Life Inc. is a leading vertically integrated platform in the fast-growing natural healthy beverage space, holding a dominant position in cold-pressed juices and wellness shots. Following its successful IPO in May 2026, the company has significantly improved its balance sheet by using proceeds to pay down high-interest debt. With strong volume-driven growth, robust gross margins exceeding 50%, and a clear path to profitability, Suja is well-positioned to capture market share through expanded retail distribution and product innovation.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets4 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$17.00

Mean target$24.25

High · most bullish analyst$31.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$17.0020%

Rising organic produce costs or supply chain disruptions compress gross margins, while intense competition in the functional beverage space slows distribution gains. Deleveraging benefits are offset by higher-than-expected SG&A expenses, limiting Adjusted EBITDA growth.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$24.2550%

Matches the consensus mean

Suja achieves its FY 2026 guidance of $367M–$371M in net sales and $70M–$72M in Adjusted EBITDA. Growth is driven by a balanced mix of distribution gains (60%) and velocity (40%), supported by stable gross margins of ~50% and reduced interest expenses following the post-IPO debt paydown.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$31.0030%

Rapid scaling of the Emerging Brands segment (Slice Soda) combined with faster-than-expected household penetration (currently at 11%) and successful expansion into away-from-home channels (convenience stores, airports, and universities) drives revenue growth well above the 13% long-term target, while operating leverage pushes Adjusted EBITDA margins past 25%.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Market leadership in the cold-pressed juice and wellness shots categories.
Vertically integrated manufacturing campus in Oceanside, CA, enabling farm-to-bottle processing in as few as eight days.
Significant balance sheet improvement post-IPO, reducing outstanding term debt by $142.6 million and lowering interest burdens.
Strong gross margin profile (50.5% in Q1 2026) driven by high-margin wellness shots and multi-packs.

Key Investment Risks

High exposure to raw material price volatility (organic fruits and vegetables).
Concentration of voting control under private equity sponsor Paine Schwartz Partners post-IPO.
Execution risk associated with scaling newer brands like Slice Soda in highly competitive categories.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Gross margin compression below 48% due to persistent supply chain or ingredient cost inflation.
A sharp slowdown in volume growth, indicating category saturation or loss of market share to competitors.
Failure to achieve projected interest expense savings from debt paydown.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.