Suburban Propane Partners LP Dossier
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SectorUtilities IndustryUtilities - Regulated Gas Beta (adjusted)0.61 Intrinsic Value $23.46median of 5 methods · middle span $18-$30based on filings through 27 Jun 2026 Market Price $16.39Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 43% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.1B Enterprise Value $2.3B Shares Outstanding 65.6M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date12 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend4 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Suburban Propane Partners LP (NYSE: SPH) operates as a highly stable, cash-generative master limited partnership (MLP) with a leading position in the retail distribution of propane. The partnership's core business is highly seasonal and weather-dependent, which limits organic volume growth but provides predictable, utility-like cash flows during normal winter seasons. SPH is actively executing a long-term diversification strategy into low-carbon alternatives, specifically Renewable Natural Gas (RNG) and renewable propane, which offers long-term ESG alignment but remains a small contributor to overall EBITDA. Given the mature nature of the retail propane industry, high leverage relative to pure-play utilities, and exposure to volatile commodity prices, the partnership is best suited as an income-generating vehicle. The current distribution yield of approximately 7.5% is well-covered (2.2x coverage), supporting a Hold recommendation for income-focused investors. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$17.00 Mean target$17.00 High · most bullish analyst$17.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $17.0015% Unseasonably warm winter temperatures across the eastern half of the United States severely depress heat-related propane demand, leading to a material decline in retail gallons sold. This volume headwind is compounded by sustained weakness in environmental attribute pricing, which dampens RNG profitability, and operational delays in bringing new anaerobic digesters online. Reduced cash generation pressures the distribution coverage ratio and limits the partnership's ability to deleverage, keeping debt-to-EBITDA elevated. Base CaseCentral scenario $17.0060% Matches the consensus meanSPH delivers stable operational performance characterized by normal seasonal weather patterns, flat to slightly declining retail propane volumes, and effective expense management to preserve unit margins. The partnership continues to integrate recent retail acquisitions in New Mexico, Arizona, and California while maintaining steady RNG injection volumes. Cash flows remain robust, keeping the distribution coverage ratio above 2.0x and allowing the partnership to gradually pay down revolving debt, maintaining a leverage ratio of approximately 4.3x. Bull CaseUpside scenario $17.0025% Sustained colder-than-average winter temperatures across SPH's primary operating footprint (Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Midwest) drive a significant surge in high-margin residential heating volumes. Concurrently, rapid operational scaling and high uptime at the Stanfield, Arizona RNG facility, combined with the successful commissioning of the Upstate New York anaerobic digester, accelerate low-carbon segment EBITDA. A recovery in environmental attribute pricing (RINs/LCFS) further boosts RNG margins, leading to leverage reduction below 4.0x and potential distribution increases. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |