Sturm, Ruger & Co Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryLeisure Products Beta (adjusted)0.45 Intrinsic Value $43.36median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 27 Jun 2026 Market Price $43.71Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 1% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $698.4M Enterprise Value $667.8M Shares Outstanding 16M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date9 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend14 May 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Sturm, Ruger & Co. (RGR) is navigating a challenging cyclical downturn in the consumer firearms market, characterized by stagnant demand and compressed margins. While the company maintains a fortress-like balance sheet with zero debt and $105 million in cash, near-term profitability remains pressured by transition costs, severe weather disruptions, and strategic reorganization under the Ruger 2030 framework. The recent strategic cooperation agreement with Beretta Holding provides governance stability and limits proxy contest distractions, but structural recovery depends on the successful ramp-up of high-margin accessory lines and new product platforms. At current valuation levels, the stock is fairly valued, offering solid downside protection but limited near-term catalysts for significant upside. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$46.00 Mean target$47.00 High · most bullish analyst$48.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario A prolonged macroeconomic downturn further dampens consumer discretionary spending, leading to inventory build-ups and aggressive competitor promotions. Production constraints or quality issues in the new accessory business delay margin recovery, while ASPs continue to trend downward due to a shift toward lower-margin products. Base CaseCentral scenario The consumer firearms market remains flat to slightly up, with Ruger successfully executing its 2026 Plan to align factory capacity with demand. New product platforms (such as the American Generation II and Glenfield lines) continue to drive retail pull-through, while the integration of Anderson Manufacturing slowly expands high-margin accessory sales. Operating margins recover to historical norms as one-off proxy and restructuring costs subside. Bull CaseUpside scenario Sturm, Ruger & Company's bull case is driven by a comprehensive operational turnaround under new CEO Todd Seyfert, who has rationalized inventory (reducing year-end inventory by 28% in 2025), expanded manufacturing capacity, and entered the high-margin accessories market through the strategic acquisition of Anderson Manufacturing. Furthermore, the company maintains a highly defensive, debt-free balance sheet with a robust current ratio, while attracting significant strategic interest, highlighted by Beretta Holding S.A. acquiring a near-10% active stake and proposing a partial tender offer to acquire up to 30% of the company. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |