Strawberry Fields Reit Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Strawberry Fields Reit Inc

STRWNYSE

SectorReal Estate

IndustryHealth Care REITs

Beta (adjusted)0.51

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $12.87Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $727.4M

Enterprise Value $1.5B

Shares Outstanding 56.5M diluted

Next Earnings Date13 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend16 Sep 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Strawberry Fields REIT, Inc. (NYSE American: STRW) represents a compelling, high-yield investment opportunity in the post-acute healthcare real estate sector. The company specializes in skilled nursing facilities (SNFs), benefiting from powerful demographic tailwinds as the U.S. senior population expands. STRW has demonstrated exceptional operational execution, maintaining a 100% rent collection rate and achieving a five-year AFFO CAGR of over 13%. While the company carries high leverage and significant tenant concentration with the Infinity group, its disciplined acquisition strategy (targeting 10% unlevered cash-on-cash returns) and active balance sheet management—including a pending $300 million corporate credit facility and successful capital raises in Israel—provide a solid foundation for continued growth and robust dividend distributions.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets7 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$14.00

Mean target$15.50

High · most bullish analyst$16.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

A major tenant, particularly within the Infinity group, faces operational or regulatory distress, leading to rent deferrals or defaults. Refinancing costs rise significantly due to persistent high interest rates, compressing margins. High leverage limits the company's ability to pursue accretive acquisitions, slowing down FFO growth.

Base CaseCentral scenario

The company successfully integrates its 2025 acquisitions, closes the $300 million corporate credit facility to refinance near-term secured debt, and achieves its 2026 acquisition target of $100 million to $150 million. Rent collection remains at 100%, and the dividend is maintained or marginally increased, supported by stable cash flows from long-term triple-net leases with average escalators of 2.8%.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

The bull case for Strawberry Fields REIT is driven by strong secular tailwinds in senior care, robust AFFO growth, and a low payout ratio under 50% that leaves ample retained cash to fund its $100-150 million annual acquisition target at high yields.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Demographic Tailwinds: Strong structural demand for skilled nursing and post-acute care facilities driven by an aging U.S. baby boomer population.
Exceptional Rent Collection: Consistent 100% collection of contractual rents, demonstrating the resilience of the tenant base and lease structures.
High-Yield Profile: Attractive dividend yield (above 5%) with a track record of consecutive annual dividend increases, including a Q2 2026 increase to $0.17 per share.
Disciplined Growth: Proven acquisition framework targeting a minimum of 10% unlevered cash-on-cash returns, driving a strong historical AFFO CAGR of >13%.

Key Investment Risks

High Tenant Concentration: Approximately 47% of rental revenues are derived from the Infinity group, creating substantial binary risk if the operator faces financial or regulatory issues.
Elevated Leverage: High debt-to-equity ratio and substantial total debt obligations require continuous access to capital markets and active refinancing management.
Related-Party Exposure: Significant insider involvement and related-party transactions (e.g., CEO Moishe Gubin and Director Michael Blisko owning operations in 66 of the leased facilities) may raise corporate governance concerns.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Any drop in the contractual rent collection rate below 95%.
Regulatory sanctions or severe operational failures at Infinity-affiliated facilities that disrupt rental payments.
Inability to close or fully utilize the planned $300 million Corporate Credit Facility, leading to near-term liquidity constraints.
A significant increase in the weighted average cost of debt that renders new acquisitions non-accretive.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.