Stratus Properties Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Stratus Properties Inc

STRSNASDAQ

SectorReal Estate

IndustryReal Estate Management & Development

Beta (adjusted)1.04

Intrinsic Value $20.23median of 1 methodbased on filings through 31 Mar 2026

Market Price $18.45Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 10% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $147.3M

Enterprise Value $216.7M

Shares Outstanding 8.2M diluted

Last ex-dividend13 Jul 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Stratus Properties Inc. is transitioning from an ongoing real estate development business to a complete liquidation and dissolution. Following a comprehensive strategic alternatives review, the Board unanimously approved, and stockholders subsequently authorized on June 1, 2026, a Plan of Complete Liquidation and Dissolution. Under this plan, Stratus will sell all remaining assets in an orderly fashion and distribute the net proceeds to stockholders. The estimated range of potential liquidating distributions is $29.73 to $37.69 per share, which represents a significant premium over the current trading price of approximately $28.50 to $29.14. This creates a compelling low-risk, event-driven arbitrage opportunity as the company monetizes its high-quality Texas real estate portfolio.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$29.7315%

Delays in asset sales due to macroeconomic headwinds, rising interest rates, or buyer financing issues push back the distribution timeline. Unresolved contingent liabilities, litigation, or higher-than-expected wind-down and tax expenses erode the net proceeds, resulting in total distributions at the lower end of the estimated range ($29.73 per share).

Base CaseCentral scenario

$33.7160%

Stratus successfully executes its orderly liquidation plan over the next 12 to 24 months. Key assets, including the retail component of Jones Crossing, the New Caney land, and remaining residential holdings, are sold close to their contract or appraised values. Stockholders receive total liquidating distributions near the midpoint of the projected range.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$37.6925%

Asset sales are completed rapidly at the high end of appraised values due to strong demand in the Austin and select Texas markets. Low transaction costs, minimal contingent liabilities, and efficient tax structuring allow the company to distribute net proceeds near or above the upper bound of the estimated range ($37.69 per share).

Scenarios reflect our research view at the research date.

Key Investment Merits

Stockholder approval of the Plan of Liquidation on June 1, 2026, solidifies the path to winding down and returning capital.
Compelling valuation gap: The current stock price trades below the lower bound of the estimated liquidating distribution range ($29.73 to $37.69 per share).
Strong progress on asset monetization, including the completed sale of Kingwood Place for $60.8 million in Q1 2026 and active negotiations on other major properties.

Key Investment Risks

Execution risk and potential delays in closing pending property sales.
Macroeconomic factors such as elevated inflation and high interest rates affecting real estate valuations and buyer demand in Texas.
Risk of unexpected liabilities, tax disputes, or litigation that could reduce the final pool of cash available for distribution.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Abandonment or material modification of the Plan of Liquidation by the Board of Directors.
A severe downturn in the Austin, Texas real estate market causing contracted buyers to default or walk away from transactions.
Discovery of significant undisclosed liabilities or environmental issues on key properties that materially reduce net asset value.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.