StoneX Group Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryCapital Markets Beta (adjusted)0.78 Intrinsic Value $97.91median of 6 methods · middle span $55-$978based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $65.40Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 50% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $7.9B Shares Outstanding 120.6M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date23 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary StoneX entered the final quarter of fiscal 2026 with strong operating momentum: fiscal-third-quarter net operating revenue increased 47% year over year to $719.7 million and quarterly return on equity reached 18.4%. The completed R.J. O'Brien acquisition materially expanded StoneX's derivatives franchise, while subsequent transactions in Brazilian payments and North American feed ingredients provide additional expansion opportunities. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$75.00 Mean target$75.00 High · most bullish analyst$75.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $75.0023% R.J. O'Brien synergies fall short of the announced targets, integration complexity raises costs, or the Banco Travelex transaction is delayed beyond its stated closing window. Lower market activity or weaker client engagement could then reduce operating leverage and push return on equity materially below the latest 18.4% level. Base CaseCentral scenario $75.0057% Matches the consensus meanRecent acquisitions are integrated gradually, the enlarged derivatives and payments platforms support continued growth, and quarterly profitability remains healthy but below exceptional peak periods. Bull CaseUpside scenario $75.0020% StoneX realizes the targeted R.J. O'Brien cost and capital synergies, converts its enlarged client network into cross-selling gains and successfully layers Banco Travelex and Advanced Marketing Group capabilities onto its global platform. Sustained double-digit growth across major operating segments would preserve an above-target return profile. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |