Stoke Therapeutics Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Stoke Therapeutics Inc

STOKNASDAQ

SectorHealth Care

IndustryBiotechnology

Beta (adjusted)1.15

Intrinsic Value $14.10median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $26.01Price as of 1 Oct 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 46% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $1.7B

Enterprise Value $1.6B

Shares Outstanding 64.1M diluted

Next Earnings Date30 Jun 2027

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Stoke Therapeutics is a high-conviction clinical-stage biotechnology play positioned to revolutionize the treatment of Dravet syndrome and other haploinsufficiency disorders. Leveraging its proprietary TANGO platform, Stoke's lead asset zorevunersen (STK-001) has demonstrated robust, disease-modifying potential with statistically significant, durable improvements in cognition, behavior, and seizure reduction over four years of longitudinal clinical evaluation. With the pivotal Phase 3 EMPEROR trial on track for a mid-2027 data readout and a rolling NDA submission slated to begin in Q1 2027, Stoke represents a highly asymmetric risk-reward opportunity. The company's strong balance sheet, bolstered by selective ATM sales to end Q1 2026 with $411 million in cash, provides a secure runway into 2028, fully funding operations through its anticipated U.S. commercial launch.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets12 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$35.00

Mean target$47.00

High · most bullish analyst$60.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$15.0015%

The Phase 3 EMPEROR trial fails to meet its primary endpoint or reveals safety concerns (such as severe treatment-emergent adverse events related to elevated CSF protein levels), delaying or derailing regulatory approval. Biogen scales back its collaboration, and Stoke is forced to seek highly dilutive financing or restructure its operations, severely depressing the stock's valuation.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$47.0060%

Matches the consensus mean

Zorevunersen demonstrates positive, statistically significant efficacy in the Phase 3 EMPEROR trial by mid-2027, matching the strong longitudinal trends seen in Phase 1/2a OLE studies. Stoke initiates its rolling NDA in Q1 2027 and completes the submission in late 2027, leading to FDA approval and a commercial launch in early 2028. Cash reserves remain sufficient to fund operations through launch without dilutive financing, and the early-stage pipeline progresses steadily.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$60.0025%

The Phase 3 EMPEROR trial meets its primary endpoint with superior efficacy and a clean safety profile, prompting the FDA to grant expedited approval. Rapid commercial uptake in the U.S. combined with rest-of-world commercialization milestones from partner Biogen drives early profitability. Stoke successfully advances its second candidate, STK-002 for autosomal dominant optic atrophy (ADOA), validating the TANGO platform's broad applicability and attracting further high-value pharmaceutical collaborations.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

First-in-class disease-modifying mechanism targeting the genetic root cause of Dravet syndrome rather than merely managing symptoms.
Compelling 4-year longitudinal data showing sustained, statistically significant improvements in both seizure reduction and cognitive/behavioral measures.
Strong financial position with $411 million in cash and investments, providing a clear runway into 2028 and through potential commercial launch.
Strategic validation and financial support through rest-of-world commercialization partnership with Biogen.

Key Investment Risks

Binary clinical trial risk associated with the upcoming Phase 3 EMPEROR data readout in mid-2027.
Regulatory hurdles or delays in the rolling NDA submission process with the FDA.
Safety and tolerability concerns, specifically monitoring elevated CSF protein levels observed in clinical studies.
Commercial execution and market adoption risks in a specialized rare-disease landscape.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Failure of the Phase 3 EMPEROR trial to achieve statistical significance on its primary endpoint of major motor seizure frequency reduction.
Severe safety signals or regulatory clinical holds that permanently halt the development of zorevunersen.
Termination of the global commercialization partnership by Biogen.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.