Stifel Financial Corp Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryCapital Markets Beta (adjusted)0.99 Intrinsic Value $79.74median of 6 methods · middle span $72-$111based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $70.34Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 13% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $10.6B Enterprise Value $9B Shares Outstanding 151M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date21 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend1 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Stifel entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum: second-quarter net revenue reached $1.45 billion, July total client assets were $578 billion, fee-based assets were $240 billion, and management remained on track for its $4 billion full-year loan guidance. The balanced wealth, institutional, and banking platform is producing operating leverage, but client-asset growth remains partly market-driven, investment-banking results are cyclical, and client money-market and insured-product balances declined 5% during July. A Hold stance is appropriate because the primary-source operating evidence is constructive. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$81.00 Mean target$89.00 High · most bullish analyst$103.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $81.0019% A market decline reduces asset-based fees and total client assets, investment-banking activity weakens, and continued contraction in client cash products raises funding pressure or offsets treasury-deposit growth. Falling tangible returns or failure to achieve the stated loan guidance would undermine the operating-leverage thesis. Base CaseCentral scenario $89.0057% Matches the consensus meanWealth-management assets remain broadly resilient, institutional activity normalizes after a strong first half, and Stifel substantially executes against its $4 billion full-year loan guidance. Earnings remain supported by the diversified platform, although market sensitivity and shifts in client cash balances limit confidence in uninterrupted growth. Bull CaseUpside scenario $103.0024% Sustained market appreciation and advisor recruiting keep client and fee-based assets near record levels, while investment-banking pipelines convert into revenue and balance-sheet expansion supports further operating leverage. Under this outcome, Stifel maintains returns near the strong second-quarter level and meets or exceeds its full-year loan guidance. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |